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144 Comments
- mediaphile, on 10/10/2007, -5/+69Really? Scr3wed? You couldn't have just said screwed. You had to go l33t with it. Wow.
- chocobomog, on 10/10/2007, -3/+39Everyone is so doom and gloom about this, but no one is saying how to avoid/survive it. While depressions are very bad for the unprepared, they can actually turn out for the best for those who do prepare (ie saving money). If stocks crash and mortgage rates fall, those people who saved during the time can take advantage of them and help bring everyone out of the depression. Suddenly, that overpriced $500,000 house which was "affordable" with funny interest plans ("no down payments needed") drops down to a realistic $250,000 and is affordable to those who saved their money for a down payment, not to mention the original owners will be desperate to sell once the bank comes a-knocking for its high interest payments.
So overall, save your money. Pay off all major loans before the interest rises. Don't carry massive credit card balances. And don't spend more than your means. It is that simple.
If people had been following this over the past decade, we wouldn't be having this mess. But no, all of those people had to buy houses that were overpriced and loaded with deceiving loan plans that they could never pay off. - scabbers, on 10/10/2007, -0/+31Hey at least the US has been fiscally responsible and not gone on any expensive adventures recently...
- bratpack8, on 10/10/2007, -5/+25We can thank the Federal Reserve. Want to see an amazing site on what inflation truly is? Check out this chart that shows the money supply growing by a factor of 8 over the past 25 years. Think about that. The money supply in this country (# of dollars printed) is 8x as much as it was in 1980!!!
http://blog.mises.org/archives/007135.asp
Guess what that does to the value of the money in your pocket? And why do prices rise? - mediaphile, on 10/10/2007, -2/+22a) you used it anyway. it's not like people won't get that scr3wed means screwed.
2) screwed isn't a bad word. ***** is a bad word. - R2Bacca, on 10/10/2007, -2/+21So you are saying that when the other kids were playing outside, you were worried about "huge outflows" of 401K cash... You are so full of bull**** it actually hurts my nose as I sit here at my desk. You obviously picked 2008 arbitrarily because 20 years is a nice, round number. Lame. Lame. Lame. Thats all I have to say.
- mediablitz, on 10/10/2007, -5/+20our credit/gnp ratio is worse than it was before the depression. I am all the way out of the market (I have been saying February is crash time).
I owe a little on my house, but have zero debt beyond that. I am fairly certain this will be much worse than 7 years ago... - DelSolid, on 10/10/2007, -1/+16Asking financial advice from Digg users?
WTF are you thinking? - pjs1840, on 10/10/2007, -1/+15So if the stock market is going to crash and the value of the dollar is going to sink, what should I do with my savings, 401k, Roth? Buy Euros or what?
I'M TOO YOUNG TO DIE! - Hawker400, on 10/10/2007, -5/+18Chicken Little.
- AlbinoRaven, on 10/10/2007, -1/+14You should be paying off the house and dumping the bluechips. Any extra capital you can draw and dump into your house is your best bet. Late 80's and early 90's bluechip durig that recession showed that bluechips sucked as a hedge against inflation and market collapse. Pay off your house first because if your rate of return on bluechip stocks are only 6-7% and your mortgage is 7-10% (possibly 10%-15% in the next two years) )you are walking into a royal mess. Better to pay for the place you live now and hold the retirement dream off for at least a couple of years. Let the market dump, then start investing again.
Alternatively, if the dollar dumps, the market stays the same and the market goes like a rocketship because of inflation. But without salaries being adjusted to major things like oil and housing become unaffordable. Basically inflation hits, your stock may be worth a million dollars US but inreality you couldn't buy a cup of coffee with the stock. - inactive, on 10/10/2007, -4/+16What will this mean for the future? Neither Draut nor Kamenetz offer a comprehensive view, but James Fallows had an excellent piece in the Atlantic Monthly a few years ago that remains relevant today: Countdown to a Meltdown, a look back from the year 2016.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200507/fallows
I still get chills from reading this. - thoughtbubble, on 10/10/2007, -0/+11I can't help but laugh at all the news stories about this lately, with their helpful tips for "consumers". Things like: Don't spend more than you earn. Pay off credit card debts. Pay at least 10% down on a mortgage.
well holy ***** duh! If people are so dumb as to buy a house they can't afford, I'm afraid I don't have any sympathy for them. It's a nasty world out there, and I save my sympathy for those unfortunates that are in truly awful situations NOT of their own making, not greedy idiots who can't understand basic economics.
And now the Canadian dollar is worth as much as the US greenback, how messed up is that? Maybe I should head down to the states and buy up some of these houses, I hear there are deals to be had.
/shrug - bratpack8, on 10/10/2007, -0/+10Actually, if the Fed keeps pumping more money into the market, keeping your mortgage is a good thing because debtors win when more money is printed, at least if you are on a fixed payment. As prices rise (because of massive monetary inflation), then the money you pay for a mortgage is less and less each year. That's why after 20 or 30 years of payments, your payment seems like nothing compared to the prices of other things.
But investing in anything that is non-dollars is definitely good advice. Raw materials, land, etc. - Wargalas, on 10/10/2007, -2/+12Debt ridden I'll give you, but *****? ***** off.
- ArmyOfFun, on 10/10/2007, -0/+9Seriously, this all completely overblown. Real estate makes up ~5% of the economy. Even if RE fell by 50% (which would be a catastrophe), the direct hit to the economy would be a measly 2.5%. In reality, RE isn't likely to fall by more than 15%, meaning 0.75% of the total economy takes a direct hit. Considering that sub-prime makes up even smaller percentages, I'm not concerned in the least.
If everyone wants to panic, go ahead. I'm still bullish on stocks in the long run. You want to freak out and sell your stocks to me at a discount of where they'll likely be in 5 years? Please do! - earlycj5, on 10/10/2007, -0/+9When was it ever NOT time to plan ahead?
- wonderchemist, on 10/10/2007, -0/+8No, we should thank the (want to inflate their commissions) lenders and (I don't care if I can't afford it) borrowers.
- sonick, on 10/10/2007, -2/+9What are you seven, or something?
- HappyScrappy, on 10/10/2007, -1/+8And?
The economy grew greatly, so more money in circulation. Note that the economy wouldn't have grown greatly if there weren't easy access to capital. There's no Google or Amazon without the ability to raise capital easily, something you can't do if there is very little capital available because of being on the gold standard,
Note also that this isn't "# of dollars printed" as you say it is. Number of dollars printed is M0 or M1 (depending on your angle). M1 is still just over a trillion dollars. This graph is of M2, which includes most deposits, which aren't printed money at all.
But hey, why be correct when you can be scary instead? - coustoe, on 10/10/2007, -2/+9why use your brain when you know big government will always bail you out?
This is becoming ridiculous when people know that there will be no consequences for their stupid behavior they make us all suffer by paying huge taxes. - inactive, on 10/10/2007, -3/+9I actually have been, moving my stock portfolio into strong bluechips, also I'm going to try and pay off the house if I can. In addition I'm trying to figure out where to move my savings into that might be depression proof.
- Y0tsuya, on 10/10/2007, -0/+6Why would I want to invest in deflating real-estate right now? It's not just the U.S. European and Asian real-estate also exhibits the same housing bubble symptoms. Almost every commodity (some may argue even gold) is overpriced. Sure you can buy TIPS, but you do that in dollars.
- Y0tsuya, on 10/10/2007, -1/+7Nobody knows for sure how to avoid it. You say to build up cash reserves. But some say if inflation takes off (dollar devalues) you will get punished because the debtors' payments become manageable while your savings shrink in inflation-adjusted terms. Then there are the gold bugs. In normal times it may be prudent to buy some gold. However detractors now say gold is overpriced. Bottom line. Nobody knows. Me, I'm with you in the cash camp, which is why I hate it when Fed lowers the interest rate.
- trump48257, on 10/10/2007, -1/+7Yea. Seriously. Thank goodness we didn't get involved in some expensive drawn out war that put a burden on the whole nation. I mean, seriously, think how bad off we would have been then.
- jmpeagle, on 10/10/2007, -1/+6don't worry, the Fed is trying to bail them out by lowering the federal funds rate thereby creating a moral hazard problem that promotes this kind of activity in the furture.
If we have such a low savings rate, wouldn't that mean interest rates must be too low? Yes, it does. Why the hell are they lowering interest rates and pumping in money....this will just move the bubble like they did when the tech stocks were crashing in 2000, where they moved the bubble from stocks to real estate via the loose monetary policy. - Y0tsuya, on 10/10/2007, -1/+6This is why only fools pay any attention to core CPI numbers.
- Charlotte_Web, on 10/10/2007, -2/+7Plastics.
- manfrin, on 10/10/2007, -3/+8$1 USD now equals $1 CND.
This is very, very troubling. - inactive, on 10/10/2007, -0/+4Even the SCIENTISTS?
- Daedalus17, on 10/10/2007, -1/+5Land.
- strabes, on 10/10/2007, -1/+4Pre-offensive post disclaimer: I am not a Republican.
Good thing we have the Democrats to tax the rich (read: evil) people to restore order and balance to the force. Everyone knows that high taxes and economic regulations promote growth; just look at any western European country! - trump48257, on 10/10/2007, -0/+3l33t, eh? Also it's "...even the scientist is...." or "...even the scientists are..." The latter of the two being the correct one in this case since there are multiple scientists. Also why not just say "economists" instead of "scientists?" That would have made more sense.
- GawtMilk, on 10/10/2007, -0/+3INVEST IN LINUX!!!!!!!!!
- unibomber420, on 10/10/2007, -0/+3So ur saying keep the 25 grand I have been saving for a house..
Keep my debt at Zero.. and when the ***** hits the fan, buy
someone's house for 1/2 of what it's "worth" today? And maybe
stockup on Raman Noodles? - Y0tsuya, on 10/10/2007, -0/+3You give the Fed too much credit. Our venerated ex-chairman A. Greenspan pretty much admitted in his 60-minutes interview that he really had no clue. He sounded like a bumbling old fool.
- watcht, on 10/10/2007, -1/+4I Blame designer home tv shows and all of HGTV for all of these ***** ups...thinking they can get 3x more than they paid the house for by painting it and placing some fancy pillows around.
- athenius22, on 10/10/2007, -0/+3Exactly. I was waiting for someone to mention this. The Fed cut the fed funds rate .5% yesterday. That's no small measure.
- Y0tsuya, on 10/10/2007, -1/+4We didn't have all these caution stickers when I was growing up. Every time a Darwin reject ended up killing him/herself I find a new sticker on my kitchen doodads.
- zydeco, on 10/10/2007, -1/+4...unless you're Canadian.
- kaelyiesta, on 10/10/2007, -1/+4The people perpetuating the debt as money system in this country would hate for your advice to be followed. I however couldn't agree more.
- pieinthesky, on 11/04/2007, -0/+3Stuff like this makes me glad I live in a bomb shelter, eat frozen peas, breathe air from a can, and never have contact with another human being ever. ever. ever. Mommy? where are you mommy. I need you mommy. Please tuck me into bed mommy.
- petron99, on 10/10/2007, -0/+2I second that recommendation! George Ure is spot on, along with his "time monks".
- Y0tsuya, on 10/10/2007, -0/+2Point taken. I've always wanted to retire to a farm or ranch.
- VitriolAndAngst, on 10/10/2007, -1/+3For a better picture of "What is going on" and "What you can do about it" -- I highly recommend you head on over to;
"http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm"
These guys have been all over this. They are explaining that the Fed is managing this "collapse" and propping up the companies that should be going bankrupt. It means we might not see the economic down-turn in the economy -- but the citizens will feel it.
I predict that we HAVE hit something like a massive recession -- but that it will keep getting worse with the government meddling. The market can't correct with this manipulation --- so the failing parts hold, while the strong parts will be forced to carry the weight -- doesn't that eventually means that everything will fail? I get the Ayn Rand mental image of Atlas shrugging -- but, while he might get a stiff neck, all those "little people he stands on" are getting squashed into jelly. Can Atlas stand if he still has his burdens and is standing on jelly? Who cares -- you and I have been rendered into a filling for donuts and we won't be around to worry about the injured executive class. - ds123, on 10/10/2007, -0/+2The point is valid, but this article is lame. There must be thousands of articles that better explain this topic.
- davidlow, on 10/10/2007, -0/+2Game over, Man!
- FortyCaliber, on 10/10/2007, -0/+2I'll hold on to it for you in the mean time... don't worry... toilet paper will be worth more anyways.
- sabach, on 10/10/2007, -0/+2You're talking about improved real estate. There's nothing wrong with the market for unimproved properties, and as farm loans start falling into default more and more raw land is going to get parceled out dirt cheap at auctions.
- Tyr7BE, on 10/10/2007, -0/+2Anyone have any links to information on how this will affect the rest of the world? As someone living in Canada, of course I'm watching this with trepidation, but I feel somewhat secure in the fact that we have our own separate currency (for now, at least). The dollar has stayed relatively constant for some time, but I'm certain we would feel at least peripheral effects in the event of a financial meltdown in the US.
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