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64 Comments
- mreade, on 12/27/2008, -1/+46Ah, remember the good ol' days when Christmas wasn't about commercialism, and how much money retailers could make? Actually... no I don't...
- DaveClarkOne, on 12/29/2008, -1/+39My word, a 2%-3% decline in retail sales...this is a blip. Why must the media blow everything up into a headline to sell their soap?
- alanocu, on 12/28/2008, -7/+43Please. Be happy it's not 1932 when 16 million people were unemployed and 34 million people had no income at all.
Times are good. The President-elect is in Hawaii frolicking around in the waves with Flipper and your bellies are so full up on pumpkin pie you're about to vomit.
In the 30s, 1,600 banks failed and 20,000 business closed their doors. And the Dow hit a record low of 41.
Suck it up buttercups. Happy days are here again. - swimsy, on 12/27/2008, -1/+31I agree. It is the lowest INCREASE since 2002, but it is the highest TOTAL ever. It seems insane to me that our rate of consumption has to keep increasing to sustain the economy. You can't ride the wave forever.
- dreicher, on 12/29/2008, -0/+13Yes, that is exactly what happens when you look at the chart and don't actually read the story. That was a projection (2.2% increase) that according to every other source in the story is NEVER going to happen and will most likely be a 2-3% decrease - including the people who released that number.
FTA: The NRF's projection would still be the weakest holiday sales gain in six years. That is, if it makes it to that level - NRF spokesman Scott Krugman said Friday that "it is going to be very difficult to hit that number." - G-RaZoR, on 12/29/2008, -0/+12Just out of curiosity, how accurate is this data? This data comes from Mastercard, so it is most likely based on some formula that is a multiplier of all mastercard sales. What's to say Visa or cash sales didn't kill mastercard sales?
- lead2thehead, on 12/29/2008, -11/+21Seriously... do people even read these articles before posting them? It was NOT a bad year for retailers. It was, in fact, the most profitable Christmas EVER for retailers and they made $10 BILLION more than last year. Now some idiot CNN reporter is trying to say it was a bad year because sales only went up by 2% when they were expecting 5%? Why are reporters constantly talking down our economy? Does CNN think we're all retarded?
Look at the chart from the article...
1999 - $343 billion
2000 - $352 billion
2001 - $367 billion
2002 - $369 billion
2003 - $388 billion
2004 - $414 billion
2005 - $435 billion
2006 - $457 billion
2007 - $460 billion
2008 - $470 billion
Oh no! They've only made more money than they've ever made, ever, ever... the economy is collapsing! EVERYBODY PANIC! - regeya, on 12/29/2008, -0/+9As they should. It's cold, and something will have to come in to replace the jobs those specialty store deadbeats will lose, but let's face it, do you need to go to the local mall to get a reproduction of a Ramones t-shirt or a Family Guy Angry Monkey shirt?
- pyrexia, on 12/29/2008, -1/+10Seriously lead2thehead, you should RTFA.
FTA: "Among the early sales tallies, new estimates from MasterCard Inc.'s SpendingPulse Data service indicated that total store sales fell about 3% in November and December combined.
That would be significantly worse than the original forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF), which anticipated a 2.2% gain for the period."
The graph is from the NRF that the article refers to and is only a projection. You have to do more than look at the pretty pictures and actually read the article in order to understand. - slyzxx, on 12/29/2008, -2/+11what is he to do he is not president yet.
- aufte, on 12/29/2008, -2/+10No they're not?
- UselessTrivia, on 12/29/2008, -1/+8Personally I enjoyed the depressed turnout at the stores this year. The lines weren't long, the parking lots weren't full and for those like myself who don't finish shopping until the 24th there were awesome sales. I got as much as 60% off at some places.
- inactive, on 12/29/2008, -0/+7More people are shopping on the internet, specialty stores are dying.
- regeya, on 12/29/2008, -0/+7Just a reminder that some of The Oil Drum denizens are now Peak Civilization doomers, so take everything with a grain of salt, y'all.
My guess is that it was the worst in decades...for specialty shops. Let's face it, most those places are one recession away from closing, and even close during good times.
Kunstler's prediction that rising oil prices would kill Wal-Mart were, sadly, completely off. They saw increases in sales this year, thanks to people wanting to one-stop shop.
You could add to that, I suppose, the uncertainty caused by the Big Three. One in ten of us here in the U.S. are affected by them. Not that I'll feel guilty about buying a Honda this year because of that (my CR-V gets better mileage than any of GM's sedans, and will likely last a lot longer) but it's a scary proposition. Many, many people I knew either were laid off right on time for the holiday shopping season, or were facing the possibility. Who wants to buy gifts for others if you think you might be having trouble getting food and keeping a roof over your head in half a year, tops? Fear, I'm sure, played a huge role in this.
My question on electronics would be this: Are they talking dollar amounts, or are they talking units? Let's face it, there just weren't any must have items this year, but there's a hell of a lot of cheap items to be had out there. I'm planning on buying a couple more computer items while prices are lower.
I got a chuckle out of the "worst in decades" comment. The numbers they have on there are totally bogus! 2002, iirc, was NOT a year of growth! However, we didn't see breadlines because of a measly 1.3% growth number. Time will tell whether 2009 is any better, or worse, than 2008. The only thing for sure is that we've finally got to address, once and for all, our overreliance on rampant consumerism. - ReptileKing234, on 12/29/2008, -0/+6for everyone except Nintendo
- rpieszak, on 12/28/2008, -3/+9It'll continue to get worse before it gets better. Hang on tight.
- Mexrocker, on 12/29/2008, -1/+6sensationalism, it is what the media does best now.
- clickwir, on 12/29/2008, -0/+5I know for me and my families, we spent a lot less. Probably half of what we did in previous years.
- Rufunki, on 12/29/2008, -0/+5All these people keep saying how bad things are, but yet when I was xmas shopping it was still a PITA to find a parking space and long lines everywhere.
- 1337d00d, on 12/29/2008, -0/+4If this keeps me from hearing jingle bells one more time at the mall, so be it.
- EXECUTiVE, on 12/29/2008, -1/+5amazon had the best xmas ever... ***** other stores amazon ftw
- lhbaker, on 12/29/2008, -0/+4A 2% or 3% decline in retail sales is devastating for businesses running on a margin of 2% (which is a lot of them). If you don't believe me, watch how many stores at your local mall have 'Going out of Business" sales in the next two months. And then, for added effect, watch what happens to your local mall.
- bincoder, on 12/29/2008, -0/+3Its getting like the little boy that cried wolf.
Ever since the begining of time itself stores have been saying they had poor sales during the holidays. I never heard them say Oh yes! Our sales were stellar this year!
If everyone with a pulse had 20 trillion dollars each to spend and lived in the stores 24/7, the stores would still find a reason to complain about 'weak' sales.
Know how to increase sales?
Open some checkouts, get some inventory, and stop doing the 'sorry we are out of stock, would you like to try this bait and switch product instead?' tactic. - socokoolaid, on 12/29/2008, -2/+5Your right! Not only is it the best ever at $470 billion, but 2008 did almost twice as good as 2002 in gain.
This article points out plenty of reasons why this year should have been a tragedy, but by it's own statistics it not a tragedy, but instead, very predictable slowdown.
The first sentence "The 2008 holiday sales season is one of the worst for retailers in decades," completely contradicts their own data. - kaelyiesta, on 12/29/2008, -0/+3Be careful about keeping track of units of measure. Remember that it isn't a function of spending per person. It's a subset of our total spending for a given year. As population increases over time, one would expect sales to increase over time as well. Our population increase is about 1.4%(including illegal growth rates).
Also consider inflation and CPI. I didn't see any claim that the numbers were adjusted for inflation. Inflation is larger than the average percent increase that graph displays, even using the ***** US government figure.
Just those two factors alone would suggest that this type of spending is in decline, per person and adjusted for current value of US dollars. - pyrexia, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2See my reply to lead2thehead above.
- Lunarsight, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2I find there are two mentalities that both can contribute to an economic slump:
* One is when people spend money recklessly and beyond their means. This lack of fear as far as the potential outcome goes is what got us into the current mess we're in.
* The second cause of an economic slump is fear of an economic slump. When the media hits the public with endless sensationalism about the bleakness of the economic picture, this doesn't help matters at all. (It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.)
Yes, the first scenario got us into the mess, but if we fall into the 'everything is ruined' trap, it's just going to make it take longer to come out from the slump.
. - Noooooooooooooo, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2Yeah, " another day with little changes" doesn't sell, but hey people tend to like what the media feeds them.
- killdashnine, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2STFU retailers. If you make money, you're doing better than most.
- sugablonde, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2i believe its called.. inflation.
- secrity, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2Assuming that there really is a drop in sales; it would be bad thing if the sales were predominately for American made goods -- a drop in sales of imported goods is not a bad thing.
- MoneyStriker, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2Expected in this economy.
- jfreeman, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2This is how the mainstream media works. Always trying to scare the country about some new "threat" or "emergency." Then we get the Iraq War and the bailouts.
- tech42er, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2I take it you've never been to Rockefeller Center?
- tgc1, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2Buried. Look at the data, this is hardly "one of the worst for retailers in decades." Numbers in 2002 show only a 1.3% growth rate as opposed to 2008 where it was 2.2% (estimated at that). 2007's sales figures at 2.4% look almost comparable. So the commentary By Parija B. Kavilanz, is completely out of touch. Sure it's not a spectacular year, looking at years such as 1999 with 8.3% growth, I think the author is exaggerating. One might almost call it fear mongering. Scare tactics. Something doesn't seem right here.
- sugablonde, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2oh i get it....so if people don't have money, they won't spend money. that sounds about right
- dralezero, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2Most the sales always go up and up and up? What if it's the same all the time. Who cares? Only worry if its a lot of negative numbers
- aelias, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2Revenue is not the same as profit. If they had to slash prices to get people to come in and buy, they're actually losing money on the transaction.
- yacks, on 12/29/2008, -0/+2Well lets assume that this season's sales were only $400 billion.. that is a loss of $60 billion.. or almost a 13% drop...although if you look at the graph... they are still making more than 1999,2000,2001,2002 and 2003.. Where is that sky that is falling? It's not falling far.. it's only going to fall farther because everyone thinks everything should be increasing year in and year out.
- ZeroCubed, on 12/30/2008, -0/+1I'm going to translate since your..uh, English, was barely readable.
ahem
"Hey guys, I'm an ***** and I'm gonna point out that if you don't have a home, you obviously can't access free internet hot spots in places like starbucks and libraries, and so you can't access the internet and go on digg. Internet is (in my eyes) becoming a luxury (when in reality it isn't). LOL" - ZeroCubed, on 12/30/2008, -0/+1Yeah, this year I got a PSP, a few gift cards ranging from $10-15, and chocolate. PSP was the only thing I wanted really.
- sugablonde, on 01/05/2009, -0/+1absolutely! how else are you going to be satisfied? ;)
- joe8pack, on 12/31/2008, -0/+1I personally wouldn't buy a snickers bar in this crumbling economy, let alone a car or house. Watch for the sucker traps being laid to separate the marks from their money - catch phrases like "buying opportunity" "once in a century bargain" and other attempts at emotional manipulation to try to steal more money from you using greed and avarice to hoist you on your own petards.
We are in late 1929, to compare today to the middle or end of the last depression is to arbitrarly decide the depression is over and that is clearly not the case -count on 2009 bringing 15-20 percent unemployment and massive credit card defaults. See the logistics supply chains freeze up due to credit and payment problems.
It took us 30 years to get into this mess, I doubt we can ever reverse this mess. We are not going back to the way things were, that era is gone, this is a new world we will be traversing, we will need babysteps until we understand it.
The world has changed and all the King's men can't put Humpty Dumpty back together again. - ZeroCubed, on 12/30/2008, -0/+1Retail companies were unhappy but I rejoiced! I have a job at a JC Penny - the less customers yelling at us, the better. The lines weren't too bad either.
- Ne007, on 12/30/2008, -0/+1It's about time that we put an end to this silly holiday and it's spending spree.
- stienster, on 12/29/2008, -0/+1what a nice thought, but that's not the game plan hanseric. The evil elites in control have planned and are executing this collapse in order to facilitate the amero and eventually, by 2014, the one world government, or, NWO. It's their game and they needed us as the players... most of us just don't know it, and the rest of us don't know how to get off the field.
- regeya, on 12/29/2008, -0/+1So wait. If I don't have the money, and want it now, should I just go ahead and buy it?
- diggdatt, on 12/29/2008, -0/+1I was really hoping they wouldnt make a profit this year. I hardly bought *****, as always.
- ganjamonsta, on 12/29/2008, -0/+1exactly. everybody (the media) wants to put this doom and gloom spin all over the economy, but in no way is this the great depression, not even that close. just ask any macroeconomics professor for a comparison.
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