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59 Comments
- katenga, on 03/18/2009, -1/+22Now, when they say "sports simulator", they just mean video game right?
- rhustang, on 03/18/2009, -3/+16woah, they are predicting the #1 seed will win the title? that is ***** INSANE!!!
- conebone69, on 03/18/2009, -1/+9yes.
- FirstCuts, on 03/17/2009, -2/+9I'm not sure if I should be happy or what, but that's my exact Final Four picks -- Louisville, Pitt, UNC, Memphis. (Although I'd feel a lot better about UNC if Ty Lawson didn't have a swollen cartoon-sized toe.)
- Tegurit34, on 03/18/2009, -0/+6I can't say I pay a whole lot of attention to basketball, but I am somewhat knowledgeable about statistics and simulations in sports, so maybe my $.02 is worth something.
APBRmetrics* are still in their infancy. For those who don't know, APBRmetrics is basketball's answer to baseball's SABRmetrics, which have revolutionized roster construction techniques for 2/3ds of MLB organizations over the last 10 years; all after being laughed out of all MLB front offices for the 10 years before it. Active leaders in APBRmetrics are trying to give statistical analysis in basketball a bigger voice, and these simulators are a part of it.
</history lesson>
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APBRmetrics
So while I'm a proponent of spreading statistical knowledge in sports and finding out how much APBRmetrics can help the NBA and NCAA, I'd be wary of what EA is providing here. For one, (as noted above) because metrics in basketball still have a long way to go, the mechanics of the simulator need to be put under a magnifying glass before it should be trusted no matter what simulation program it is. For two, EA is trying to sell something for profit and doesn't want to share the inner workings of their simulator, so this isn't exactly a research team without sinister interests. For three, I don't know well NBA-invented metrics can be applied to NCAA in the first place -- at least in baseball, college and high school Sabermetrics are relatively garbage, although it should be noted that because of the Minor Leagues system that the difference between the levels of play are much wider than from NCAA to the NBA.
So that's my unsolicited advice from a non-basketball fan. Just FWIW. - bjs3171, on 03/18/2009, -0/+6i'd imagine they just put some numbers into NCAA 09, and have it play out as a movie.
- Bukowsky, on 03/17/2009, -0/+5I got the same picks... but i'm a little weary of UNC.
- jacquesLEshock, on 03/18/2009, -0/+5well, it's not like you went out on a limb with those picks
- badqat, on 03/18/2009, -1/+5I feel for you. I say we get together and combine Billy G and Kragthorpe as a package deal to any school that'll take 'em off our hands.
- FirstCuts, on 03/18/2009, -0/+4UConn and Memphis are in the same region, so evidently you've got a magic bracket if those teams make the Final Four.
- badqat, on 03/18/2009, -1/+5Yeah, yeah...and what when you say when Kentucky's Billy G throws up on Kruger tonight after the game due to excessive bourbon intake?
- wonderwes, on 03/18/2009, -0/+4I'll go out on a limb. I put Louisville to win it all in my bracket pool. Rick Pitino its time to work your magic. If you can say with a fact you are entirely sure on all picks in your entire bracket, that sir, is a bold lie.
- zero, on 03/18/2009, -1/+5No way! A simulator picked the best team in the country to win it all? What a shocker.
- NoiseThread, on 03/17/2009, -1/+5EA also simmed a hypothetical college football playoffs. The championship game ended up as Florida vs. OU, and yes, Florida won. Maybe it's not so crazy after all...
http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/game_room/posts/ ... - HomieG6189, on 03/18/2009, -0/+311th seed Dayton in the sweet sixteen? Being from Dayton and a fan of the flyers this is awesome. We need more attention. Just like Davidson got when the were in the sweet sixteen last year, remember?
- evilesttoast, on 03/18/2009, -1/+4hahaha, im a hardcore uk fan, and even i hate billy g.
- ninj0r, on 03/17/2009, -2/+5C-A-R-D-S
Go Cards GO - HappyScrappy, on 03/18/2009, -0/+3Apostrophe foul.
- KimmyGibbler, on 03/18/2009, -0/+3Wake's overrated, they're gonna lose to Utah.
- tehjai, on 03/18/2009, -0/+3Mine happen to be Wake Forrest, Missouri, Duke and North Carolina. Then again, I'm not a huge follower of college basketball till March Madness and I base my choices off of lucky guesses.
- tazzydnc, on 03/18/2009, -0/+2wow picking the highest seeded teams to go the farthest? EA you are bold indeed...
- Cashmoney504, on 03/18/2009, -0/+2simulator
- maestroh, on 03/18/2009, -0/+2Wow, the ea sports simulator said the #1 overall seed would win? Get outta town.
- ghostlywind, on 03/18/2009, -0/+2Wait, who would actually believe this, i mean it's EA.
- NOFXY, on 03/18/2009, -0/+2are you serious?.... O_0
- toconnor, on 03/18/2009, -0/+2I like how five of the Elite 8 are Big East teams. Go Nova!
- Tegurit34, on 03/18/2009, -0/+2If it's anything like the sports simulators I know of outside of basketball, they simulate the tournament 10,000 times and make predictions based on probabilities. But EA suspiciously doesn't want to reveal anything about how they come up with their projections, so nobody can really say.
However, dealing with small sample sizes in sports is stupid, and no matter how many times anyone simulates the tournament this can't be avoided. - BrokenVisage, on 03/18/2009, -0/+2ok.. so computers go with the chalk too, big surprise.
- Dougman82, on 03/18/2009, -0/+1lol, my thoughts exactly. At least he's got one team that's not a 1-seed...
- xerigen, on 03/18/2009, -1/+2Interesting, I've done a lot of analysis on this so far (not the article, the tournament) with basic statistics, basketball sabrmetrics, historical tournaments, and very limited pundit commentary and I've placed some upsets under certain categories like "Decent Probability", "Not Likely, but Possible", "not COMPLETELY stupid", and "You'd be stupid to pick these" and one of the upsets in this elite group of 10 is Dayton over West Virginia. I hope EA is wrong this time.
- jacquesLEshock, on 03/18/2009, -1/+2***** YEAAAAAAAAAH!
- jtt123, on 03/18/2009, -0/+1just like it said pats would win the superbowl couple seasons ago
- doctorcaligari, on 03/18/2009, -1/+2Here you go:
ScottKuma's Magical NCAA Bracket-Filler
http://scottkuma.net/NCAA/index.php - FirstCuts, on 03/18/2009, -1/+2Yes, they used NCAA Basketball 09 to simulate the games. I never did hear if this was with roster adjustments from the March Madness DLC they just released though.
- daivos, on 03/18/2009, -1/+2Let me guess. They predict UNC, UConn, Louisville and Memphis to round out the final four. How innovative.
- g00dbye, on 03/18/2009, -0/+1You accidentally the whole tournament?
- uclaith, on 03/18/2009, -1/+2this is for you
http://www.clown.com - bjs3171, on 03/18/2009, -1/+2so does google have a sports betting app?
- inactive, on 03/18/2009, -1/+2I have Louisville getting upset by Michigan State. Memphis is going all the way. I'm just glad that I don't have to waste a pick on IU this year (my Alma mater) hehe.
- NaviGATR, on 03/18/2009, -0/+1It's awazing how close they got to getting almost every detail of the Super Bowl right. These games are getting too smart. How long before the Terminators come?
- Tegurit34, on 03/18/2009, -0/+1@ FirstCuts:
If they just used a video game then that's just ***** retarded. I retract my post in this subthread. - nernie, on 03/18/2009, -0/+1Somebody should build a list of all the predictions. Here are two other interesting methods:
http://digg.com/basketball/Nate_Silver_style_Brack ...
http://www2.isye.gatech.edu/people/faculty/Joel_So ... - nernie, on 03/18/2009, -0/+1Here's a helper based on some data analysis on every game played this season:
http://digg.com/basketball/Nate_Silver_style_Brack ... - graderguy, on 03/19/2009, -0/+1Dayton beats Kansas??
Go ***** yourself EA! - mborys88, on 03/19/2009, -0/+1Ok. I'm trusting this. Just changed my fantasy outcome. Go Buckeyes!!!!
- tylersciacqua, on 03/19/2009, -0/+1I think those are EVERYBODY'S picks.
- nmezib, on 03/18/2009, -1/+2Alright, I know EA was right in predicting the Steelers Super Bowl win (woot) but right now i say ***** EA. Let's Go Pitt.
- nmezib, on 03/18/2009, -0/+1superbowl?
- klshel, on 03/17/2009, -2/+2I need all the help I can get filling out my brackets.
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