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- totorototoro, on 01/14/2008, -1/+48Signs that a tech reporter is lazy/ignorant/stupid/mailing it in:
1) They quote tech pundit Rob Enderle
2) They quote tech pundit Tim Bajarin
3) They quote tech pundit John Dvorak - inactive, on 01/14/2008, -6/+35I blog about politics often, trust me.. pundits often get it wrong. A lot of it is self-serving garbage, but believe it or not it can be quite helpful in the innovative process. Think about all of the speculation that happens in the world, a lot of it probably happens due to rampant speculation and punditry by "experts", rabid fans and now bloggers. I think everyone wins from the *****, but it can be pretty annoying when expectations are so high that negativity starts to rule the discussion and the anti-Fan-boys become as obnoxious as the fan-boys.
- anderzole, on 01/14/2008, -2/+29How John Dvorak is qualified to write anything tech related is beyond me.
- AFNJ, on 01/14/2008, -1/+28Dugg for Bacon Cookies.
- MacnCidar, on 01/14/2008, -6/+26What difference does it make if a pundit "gets it" or not. Pundits are creepy, lying, used car salesman.
- knopf, on 01/14/2008, -5/+23Copy of the article:
With Macworld approaching, the pundits are out in full force with their predictions; A 3G iPhone, an ultra slim Macbook, a tablet with touch technology, iTunes movie rentals. And at the same time, analysts are putting in their 2 cents, expressing concerns that Apple won’t be able to top last years iPhone announcement. Some are even boldy proclaiming that the Mac faithful should be preparing for a Macworld letdown this year. And what do all of these journalists, gabbers, bloggers, and fan-boys have in common?
They’re all missing the big picture.
Apple’s Success Over The Years
The reason Apple has been so successful over the past few years is that it has adopted a strategy of releasing advanced and innovative products that it slowly but surely adds value to. Introducing a product that instantly becomes a smash hit, such as the iPhone, is not what typically happens at Macworld, and a look back at some of Apple’s more successful products shows that slow and steady does in fact win the race.
Even when Apple introduced the iPod in 2001, critics and users yawned at the prospect of yet another expensive MP3 player on the market. Even Apple fanboys expressed ambivalence about the iPod. But Apple methodically tweaked the user interface. It came out with new models, it increased capacity, it increased battery life, it added photos, and the list goes on and on. Then in 2003, it launched the iTunes music store which, at the time, only housed a meager 200,000 songs. By 2004, however, three years after the initial release of the iPod, Apple’s white earbuds were everywhere. And that my friends, is how Apple works. It doesn’t go for the hail-mary on first and 10. Instead, it slowly and methodically marches down the field, continuously improving and upgrading its product line.
This strategy can also be seen in the context of Mac OS X. Instead of releasing one mammoth update every 4 years, Apple has been continuously releasing new versions of its OS at an average interval of 1.5 years. When the initial OSX came out there wasn’t much there to drool over. But by continuously enhancing and adding intuitive features, Mac OS X has evolved into a solid and advanced OS, as evidenced by Leopard. Similar incremental improvements can be seen across its product line from its iLife software suite to its iMac computer models. With this in mind, predicting the future success of Apple based on one Macworld Expo is completely shortsighted as Apple understands that game changing software and hardware isn’t created overnight. Is it any surprise that companies who introduce “revolutionary” products that were seemingly engineered and pushed out the door in three months never make a blip on the technology radar?
Expectations are high, maybe a bit too high
Critics and fan-boys should not feel let down if Apple doesn’t bring down the house this week. Instead, they should be excited about some new announcements and products that may not necessarily be game changing in and of themselves, but are part of a larger plan that will fundamentally improve the way we all use computers and technology. Undoubtedly, whatever Steve Jobs happens to announce at Macworld will come under scrutiny by those who might criticize the specs or price of new products, or the rationale of whatever business deal is announced. This criticism, however, is often levied by those who can’t see down the field 100 yards.
As Macworld approaches, don’t expect a new tablet device with touch screen capabilities that will to turn wine into water, but rather some new business initiatives that will push the envelope, along with product upgrades and introductions that when looked at from a distance, are part of a larger plan that can in fact revolutionize the way we use technology. That is reason enough to get excited.
If you haven’t done so, please subscribe to the itola RSS News Feed. It’s a frequently updated business and technology column and costs you nothing! - andycr512, on 01/14/2008, -0/+14You're right there... I talked to Enderle via email several times, and he is simply a quack... At the end he said "I'm sick of arguing about everything I write with all my readers!" to which I replied, "Quite frankly if you're having to, your words, "argue (...) with all [your] readers" perhaps you need to reconsider what you're writing."
I never heard from him again. - LoganT, on 01/14/2008, -3/+16LOL, Apple will never have to worry about that. That will never happen.
Digg me down, you know it's true. - Berkana, on 01/14/2008, -0/+13It's rather sad that they get paid to spew editorial *****, and somehow keep their jobs even though they are often wrong far more than they are right.
- fLUx1337, on 01/14/2008, -1/+14People get too hyped about Steve's keynote at Macworld, only to be disappointed when they don't get what they were hoping for...
I always hope for improvements to products, that's all. I don't want a new Mac because it would be cool and new, but because its faster than my existing one, and/or has features which would be useful to me. - anderzole, on 01/14/2008, -3/+15The problem is that major news agencies often hire one person to cover all of their technology news and its not likely that that one person is gonna be well versed in all things tech. It's like hiring a basketball analyst to cover football, baseball, and hockey as well.
- Vegabondsx, on 01/14/2008, -2/+10I think there are a lot of people who give Apple hype because they enjoy the experience and the hype while the media and journalists take it to the next level. It's all in good fun... or it should be.
- Viper244, on 01/14/2008, -3/+9FTA: "The reason Apple has been so successful over the past few years is that it has adopted a strategy of releasing advanced and innovative products that it slowly but surely adds value to... look back at some of Apple’s more successful products shows that slow and steady does in fact win the race"
This is also something that Microsoft is good at. Look at the first generation Zune versus the second. Look at the Xbox compared to the Xbox360. People underestimate Microsoft's ability to compete. They've proven that they can. After all, competition is good! - coldpockets, on 01/14/2008, -3/+9http://itola.com.nyud.net:8090/technology/mac-worl ...
- InorganicMatter, on 01/14/2008, -2/+8That day will never come. I point to them Compiz project for proof - the original project still hasn't gotten out of beta stages yet, and it already has a bunch of branches, merges, and splittings, NONE of which are out of beta yet. 90% of OSS software stays permanently in beta, releasing a new beta every hour.
- Firehed, on 01/14/2008, -0/+6A lot of the speculation can provide a kick-off point for future products, so it may be good in the long term. In recent times, and especially with Apple, the expectations are set so high that it's almost impossible not to be at least slightly let down. But you get customers doing mock-ups of what they'd like to see (and trying to trick others that it's due out shortly, in these cases) and then the companies can gauge reactions to these nonsense ideas and realize that there might actually be a market for such a product. Earlier today, I spotted a mock-up for an Apple NAS in one of the rumor sites forums, and it seemed like people would really go for it (I definitely would, and if one doesn't show up tomorrow, I'm probably just saying '***** it' and buying an Xserve)
Of course people are getting it wrong. It's the nature of speculation, especially with companies as secretive as Apple. In the short term, we see the stock drop the day of the event (and the rebound stronger the next day, so buy some AAPL just *after* the keynote) and the people that weren't sitting too close to the RDF are bitching and moaning. Then people realize that a previously unknown need has just been filled and they go out and spend money. I know I will. - seantubridy, on 01/14/2008, -3/+9This article really nails it. Unfortunately, for Apple, many fans will simply want to be wowed this year again because of the iPhone. And anything less exciting will be called a letdown. But it's true. Some of their most successful products have taken a while to become widely popular.
- ChristianD, on 01/14/2008, -6/+12I totally disagree. People should get excited more often. People are so ambivalent to the world around them these days and that mentality is 90% of the reason why the world is in such a ***** condition. Hey, in my opinion there are things more worthy of ones excitement, but hey, everyone has to start somewhere. Today maybe you're excited about a 3G iPhone, maybe tomorrow it's AIDS in Africa or a better school for your children. Caring enough to get excited is something everyone can use. Gadgets prove that little dreams and ideas can become real if you just move on them, so freak out all you want so long as you remember to spread that enthusiasm to other areas of interest. What a world it would be if we all really cared about something, anything!
- vincenzo7, on 01/14/2008, -8/+13i think this guy is way off. apple shoots the moon with its innovations. Most companies update their products with added value, (the smart ones at least), but a company like Apple doesnt say...ok , Leopard is good enough, throw it out there then we'll make it what it's supposed to be. And if the iPhone wasn't a hail mary pass, then I don't know what was. Just because people didn't like the iPod at first doesn't mean Apple planned it that way.
- Cupantae, on 01/14/2008, -0/+5Well I know it's silly to post this on a Mac-related comments board, but why should that be a goal? It already looks great with compiz; I'm sure they could mimic Mac effects if they wanted to, but that's not the appeal of Linux
- yenster, on 01/14/2008, -0/+5Well, at least Dvorak's occasionally funny and he gets the holier-than-thou Redmond-worshipping establishment pissed off from time to time, which is worth something. Oh, and he's right about 25% of the time (he's the guy who was the laughing stock of the tech press for a year or so for predicting that Apple would go Intel). Enderle is just a mouthpiece for Microsoft and I've never known him to be right about anything important. Plus, he's got the wit and writing style of a tree sloth. I know I've read Bajarin from time to time but not enough to form an opinion about him. What, no mention of Robert Cringely?
- MacEnvy, on 01/14/2008, -0/+5You forget that baseball players are considered to be skilled individuals. Pundits don't seem to have many skills beyond targeted charisma (telling some of the people *what they want to hear* some of the time).
- timusca, on 01/14/2008, -1/+6I agree with the theory behind what this guy is saying, and although I don't expect any announcements that will top the iPhone, I think he wrong in that no major announcements will be made... newly designed MacBooks and AppleTV 2.0 are highly probable and I personally see those as highly anticipated products.
Not only will we have a shiny new ultra-portable notebook, but we'll also have an AppleTV that is worthy of a name other than "a hobby" for Steve Jobs. - Nick519, on 01/15/2008, -0/+4this article has some good points, but he's also completely wong in some parts. for example, FTA: "When the initial OSX came out there wasn’t much there to drool over." -- is he serious?? OSX was the first revamp of the mac OS since the beginning! there was a TON of things to drool over.
- qengho, on 01/14/2008, -0/+4Bajarin's not too bad, but I agree the others are a waste of oxygen.
- robbob, on 01/14/2008, -0/+3dovrak dot org slash blog
- timusca, on 01/14/2008, -1/+4I saw that and immediately said aloud at work "WTF?! BACON COOKIES?!"
FYI - For those of you that have NO idea what all the talk about bacon cookies is about, look at the ads on the bottom right... - scooby0110, on 01/14/2008, -1/+4John Dvorak might have been a good tech writer back in the day, but out with the old and in with the new. The guy is such an old dinosaur when it comes to the modern day tech world that he no longer matters.
The way I think of Dvorak is he is kind of like Larry King, but in the tech industry. His time is over. Move on, nothing to see here. - Flarup, on 01/14/2008, -1/+4You have no idea what you are talking about.
- Dymphna, on 01/14/2008, -0/+3Which is why every company had CES had an iPhone knockoff, right? They just conveniently had the same thing in the works?
- norman619, on 01/14/2008, -0/+3Why does Linux need to clone OSX?
- Speed, on 01/14/2008, -1/+4Once again: diggs != page views
- micklerlop, on 01/14/2008, -1/+4yum!... bacon cookies
- threepio, on 01/14/2008, -0/+3I have an iMac on the left. I have the latest in Core2Quad, 8800GTS powered glory on the right. The iMac cost me about $2k two years ago. The PC cost me about $1100 last month with the ridiculously larger monitor in the package.
I use the PC for The Orange Box, World of Warcraft and seeing pretty things in Crysis. I use the Mac for everything else. - kevinmotel, on 01/14/2008, -0/+2I suppose Microsoft needs to fear that as well....
- yabos, on 01/14/2008, -3/+5Mirror?
- Swift2, on 01/14/2008, -0/+2Well, one thing wrong is that the iPod was a big success from the start. The critics did wonder, will people pay that much? And the interface is the same now as it was in the beginning, from the user's point of view. It was the continuous fiddling, and the addition of iTunes, and making a version for Windows, that gave it a huge market share. Otherwise, MS's strategy that worked with computers, of having a bunch of manufacturers run with their software, and burying Apple and other competitors with cheap machines, would have worked. With Apple continuously improving and integrating the iPod, iTunes, Windows and OS X, all that was coming from the other side was cacophony.
- topgigmedia, on 01/14/2008, -5/+7I fix up my 78 Datson to run fast too (like a cheap, fast PC), but it doesn't mean that I would choose that over a fast Benzo(mac) ;).
- pyrates, on 01/14/2008, -1/+3What a refreshing article. Well written I must say.
- Microdot, on 01/14/2008, -0/+2linux doesnt need to clone osx... what linux needs, is the third party support that linux (or ideally, windows) has. the day adobe cs runs natively in linux without wine or the like, is the day linux becomes a viable alternative. (and before you start... yes, i know there are other alternatives. gimp is great. but it is not an industry standard, and has a long way to go to catch up). im merely using adobe as an example though. its the recognizable third party apps that linux needs.
- Urkel, on 01/14/2008, -0/+2As opposed to a company spokespeople and keynote presenters who are always telling the truth and have no desire to sell a product by manipulating hype.
Most people will ignore this fact, but pundits are a direct result to "over-enthusiastic" fans. You have regular consumers who become so in love with a company that they oversell a product so in comes the pundits to put everyone back in their place. I'm not saying either side is good or bad. I'm just saying that if people would be more realistic about products then the world would be much less annoying. - inactive, on 01/14/2008, -1/+3just like your mama, cheap and fast
- autoy, on 01/14/2008, -1/+3"Who gives a *****?"
You do because you bothered to post a comment and I do because I took the time to respond. - GMorgan, on 01/14/2008, -0/+2That's not what Linux needs. What will set Linux going forward is when there is a clearly dominant distro that has a recognised support structure. The problem right now is Ubuntu is clearly dominant but it's support structure is unproven.
- Chirp08, on 01/14/2008, -0/+2I couldn't care less, in fact, if they manage to "wow" me with something I recently bought a version of (MBP, iPod Touch) I'm gonna be "pissed"
- hollywoodphony, on 01/14/2008, -1/+3This is probably the best, most-accurate and insightful article I've read about Apple.
- MrDiggDugg, on 01/14/2008, -2/+4"I blog about politics often, trust me.. pundits often get it wrong" -- certes, this makes you eminently qualified...
- scyon, on 01/15/2008, -0/+1All you really need to be a tech writer is a keyboard, a mouse, an Internet connection and a buck-o-five.
- mk2ja, on 01/14/2008, -0/+1Heh... who wants to turn wine into water anyway, right?
That's one feature I wouldn't be whoopin' and hollarin' about if the new MacBooks came with it. - etandrib, on 01/14/2008, -0/+1I think you are wrong. He talked about the iPhone as being the exception. Other than that Apple has spent years making its products better and excluding "must-have" features of other software/hardware just because it doesn't fit with their strategy. OSX is the perfect example of perfection and improvements coming in small bits and shorter timeframes. It allows them to be flexible and keep up with fast moving technology.
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