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258 Comments
- normalkid, on 10/12/2007, -13/+260"I was talking with Dvorak at the Vloggercon party this evening, and he started telling a story about how he deliberately pisses Mac users off to get flow for his stories, and I said, hold a minute, I want to record this, and ***** if he didn't stop and repeat it for me and my video camera. I guess now I'm an official video blogger. "
http://www.scripting.com/2006/06/09.html#When:10:38:44PM - billdcat, on 10/12/2007, -97/+204This article is wrong, wrong, wrong. The mobile phone business IS moribund, just like the MP3 player market was. It's a crowded market, with a lot of crap.
He says that Apple won't be able to keep up with fast changing fashion aspect of mobile phones. Why do you think they change so fast? Because everything out there is complete crap, and people are desperately seeking something worth carrying, let alone buying.
I've seen the phone in person, thought I wasn't able to use it. It's sweet - I want one, and many others do too. - warnergt, on 10/12/2007, -18/+100Dvorak is an idiot. 12 years ago, he said we should dump cable modems for the superior ISDN. How many of you are using ISDN today?
The Looming Cable Modem Fiasco
by John C. Dvorak
August, 1995
http://web.archive.org/web/19970415081814/http://www.pcmag.com/issues/1415/pcm00059.htm - cctoronto05, on 10/12/2007, -9/+60You know when Dvorak poopoos something that it is gpoing to do well!! That's a Dvorak endorsement...
- Ireland, on 10/12/2007, -11/+62Looks like Dvorak is yearning for his monthly dose of front page fever with a story title like that.
- srodolff, on 10/12/2007, -45/+87Moribund!?! Not hardly.
New models come out ALL the time. Look at Motorola...ROKR, SLVR, RAZR, KRZR, and the Q.
People complained that the bluetooth headsets couldn't hear music.....BAM...new phone.
Apple will never do this fast enough. - longofest, on 10/12/2007, -35/+75He's trolling, and for a purpose. He makes people mad, and that gets attention to his opinions. This digg article and the countless other blogs that are out there blasting him only go to feed his trolling career.
It may be infuriating that he is so worthless about most things Apple and yet he is paid for writing opinions about it, but stirring up an online frenzy about it is similarly worthless. Just take a breath and ignore him. - jaredseth, on 10/12/2007, -12/+46"Dvorak is pretty much the Nostradamus of technology"?
Talk about being generous. Dvorak is wrong as often as he's right (if not more often). But as others have pointed out, he tries to be controversial to garner attention. - brstilson, on 10/12/2007, -6/+39If only Apple listened to Dvorak and pulled the plug on the iPod while they still had the chance. If they miss this plug-pulling opportunity, they might end up selling the iPhone to lots and lots of people, making lots and lots of money in the process, and we all know how bad that can be.
- overbyte, on 10/12/2007, -9/+41i love dvorak - he's readily admitted on the twit podcast that he does stuff like this to increase interest in his column.
the guy is a comedy genius - Konstantino, on 10/12/2007, -3/+28Eh, what can I say. Dvorak is just a cranky geek.
- Boondoggle, on 10/12/2007, -4/+28 by SVPirate 35 minutes ago
"I don't think they should pull the plug on it necessarily, but they should brace for a limited uptake"
------------------------------------------------------
Apple has publicly stated that thier goal is 1% of the market for cell phones. You may not consider that "limited uptake", but it is clear they are not expecting to dominate that industry out of the gate. - cleverboy, on 10/12/2007, -14/+37Btw, Dvorak also says podcasting is for MacHeads and not worth spit:
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1682993,00.asp?kc=PCRSS03079TX1K0000585
October 25, 2004:
"But since the world consists of 95 percent PC users, how does all this really work? For one thing, you have to wonder how long the trendy, overhyped iPod will dominate the portable music player market. I suspect that once people figure out that it's an overpriced toy, they'll come to their senses. Either that, or they'll do so when every Nokia phone becomes an MP3 player. What I'm saying here is that the podcasting idea, designed around the Macintosh, will probably have to reinvent itself fast, if it's going to be much more than another short-lived cool idea for Macheads."
He's a genius at manipulating people with a matrixes of opinions they feel strongly about... especially "MacHeads". He's the Energizer Bunny of trolling. It's interesting to listen/watch him on these podcasts, how he's carefully avoided sharing any opinions on the iPhone. He waits out moments like this where he can impact things most. People that post or pay attention are exactly the traffic servants he enjoys most. "Go forth my minions, bring me back oodles of traffic!" It's just annoying as hell when he's not the only one generating more or less FAKE opinions.
I'm just glad he was right about the iPod and its 15 minutes of "trendy" fame. Cause Apple doesn't know anything about keeping "trendy" things going. - somerandomnerd, on 10/12/2007, -7/+29"Dvorak's brain is like a clitoris very small and impossible to find."
A Mac user is like a clitoris. Over sensitive, excitable, but just as easy to rub up the wrong way. - tomvendetta, on 10/12/2007, -3/+22back when i did listen to TWiT, it was because of him and steve wozniak. the two are both equally funny characters. though woz has better stories ;)
- SVPirate, on 10/12/2007, -23/+42Pretty much meets with my view - that iPhone doesn't do anything special. It does it reasonably well by the looks of Steve's demo, but all Apple products look good in a Keynote... I think the early launch was both a marketing masterstroke and a big screw up. You can't scare other Mobile Phone manufacturers off by touting you have lots of patents on er... STUFF on the phone. Good lawyers from other makers will promptly look up all the patents and find what isn't patented, and copy it.
I don't think they should pull the plug on it necessarily, but they should brace for a limited uptake, especially when you compare price points, and by the time it staggers onto the market there will be many other models of phone with similar and in some cases better functionality and features. Unless the release product is significantly better than what was demo'd at MWSF it's gonna get a battering from the reviewers.
Comparing iPod to iPhone is also total bunk. The iPod was launched into a market barely off the ground, with no really good products to even come close to matching the iPod at the time. iPhone launches as a product coming into a mature and rapidly developing marketplace. One foot wrong and they could end up in screw-up city, and we could see the iPhone consigned to the history books with the Newton. Mobile phones are a cut-throat market. You can be the bomb one moment and the laughing stock the next. - Quix, on 10/12/2007, -5/+23Dvorak = the flag564 of "journalism." People need to just start ignoring this attention-starved old windbag and he'll simply fade away.
- eiresean, on 10/12/2007, -9/+27Did anyone READ the article? Cable modems in '95 were near $600. He talked about the lack of standards and service. If you are going to bring up old articles interpret them. ISDN was stable and supported at the time. Based on poor cable company service these days he had a good point years ahead.
- brstilson, on 10/12/2007, -33/+51@loungofest
We on digg know that Dvorak is pretty much the Nostradamus of technology, but how many investors are really going to do their homework on this guy? He's presented as an expert when all he is is a troll concerned only with his web traffic. All of his articles should be required to have the disclaimer: "John C. Dvorak predicted that cable modems and iPods would never take off." - wageslaven, on 10/12/2007, -7/+23When Dvorak said "Wii will rule the gaming market", *this* forum was all a twitter about the great sage Dvorak.
http://digg.com/gaming_news/John_C_Dvorak_org_blog_Wii_will_dominate_the_future_of_gaming
Now, he chooses to cross a chosen Digg sacred cow? And this forum turns on him. I dont think dvorak is any more or less than any other mainstream tech writer (mossberg quickly comes to mind). He is often wrong, sometimes insightful.
What this forum's reaction is simply saying is that this "community" -- and the digg rating system in particular -- is so broken as to almost form a perfect nirvana of fanboy reality distortion.
Let me sum it up:
MS bad.
Wii good.
XBox360 good.
PS3 bad.
Vista bad.
XP good.
iphone good.
ipod good.
Every other DAP on the planet: bad.
Those vast topics, DAPs, Gaming, PC Hardware, PC OSs are vast topics -- yet this forum is incapable of seeing past its navel long enough to have an adult conversation.
Dvorak brings up MANY good points of critisism of the iphone. Nothing ive not read 100 times before since the iphone annoucnment. Further, technical critisim of the iphone -- in the real world -- speaks mostly to the iphone's effect on the market due to its cadre of "apple loyalists".
Why has this forum sold its soul in exchange for brand loyalty? Technology isnt really an emotional play, yet this forum *WANTS* it to be this way.
This forum, and its attack on criticism of non-existent-iphone-sacred-cow-to-be ("Im a iphone fan!") is fracking disturbing.
This may finally be what forces me to put a block on the apple topic. This is a sad sad sad display. - Pic0, on 10/12/2007, -22/+37"I've seen the phone in person, thought I wasn't able to use it. It's sweet - I want one, and many others do too."
brand loyalty boy - DreKor, on 10/12/2007, -1/+14My vocabulary has now expanded to include "moribund". I feel smarter.
- brstilson, on 10/12/2007, -1/+13"Talk about being generous. Dvorak is wrong as often as he's right (if not more often)."
And how is that not like Nostradamus? - lou2005, on 10/12/2007, -2/+13He also said that the Nike plus kit for the ipod nano was.... well I can't remember his words except that it didn't make any sense to him. I "got it" and then i got one. I think Nike has sold a million of them and just recently they said every shoe they make will be compatible by year's end.
- SgtAl, on 10/12/2007, -13/+24The people that rush out to get the iPhone are the same people that think the iPod is the only mp3 player worth owning. Personally I couldnt care less about the iPhone, will it make phone calls better than any other phone? I doubt it. Do I need a touch pad to replace the key pad on my phone? Nope. The iPhone is another Apple bauble I have no use for and I wont buy. Apple should concentrate on taking more market share away from the PC market now that you can run Windows with an Apple.
- johnpaul191, on 10/12/2007, -7/+16he's just looking for traffic to his blog to make money. he's the same way on podcasts the pops up on. he constantly plugs his blogs, and asks for listeners to send him free stuff.
seriously.... just getting riled up about him is what he wants. you will click through his blog and read his nonsense and he can make more off his ads. he knows Apple people will read his article because they are generally concerned when a pseudo-journalist predicts Apple's imminent demise. he's been doing this for years, and any rag that publishes his articles is just as questionable for stooping to those lows. if anything he should be flagged as op/ed and not let anyone think he has anything newsworthy to say. remember this is the same guy that constantly has predicted Apple will go bankrupt for 10 years. no matter what you think of Apple, he's obviously out of touch with the industry and the general public. - DarkJC, on 10/12/2007, -2/+10Um, what are you smoking?
Apple has ALWAYS made their bread and butter off of hardware sales. The great software you get with the hardware (OS X for their computers, tight integration with iTunes and the store) is what sells the hardware. They make jack ***** off of iTunes downloads, they make a ton more off of iPod sales. - ,,|,_, on 10/12/2007, -1/+9"The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a 'mouse.' There is no evidence that people want to use these things. What businessman knows about point sizes on typefaces or the value of variable point sizes? Who out there in the general marketplace even knows what a 'font' is? The whole concept and attitude towards icons and hieroglyphs is actually counterrevolutionary — it's a language that is hardly 'user friendly'. This type of machine was developed by hardware hackers working out of Xerox's Palo Alto Research Center. It has yet to find popular success. There seems to be some mysterious user resistance to this type of machine."
- John C. Dvorak on why the Macintosh would fail, San Francisco Examiner, 02/19/1984 - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -6/+14maybe we should write him and ask him how well he is doing on that ISDN now days! hahaha
- Homunculiheaded, on 10/12/2007, -7/+13Dvorak is always writing in excessive hyperbole, but I think he does make a lot of good points, and anyone in the game of predicting what's going to happen next is going to be wrong more than they're right. Remember last year's 'OMG Dvorak thinks Apple will become a hardware company'? Yea he was way over the top but he called that before Apple made it possible to run windows on its hardware, AND in just a year Apple took off the 'computers' out of it's name and is starting to consider themselves a consumer electronics company.
Was Dvorak right? No he was off in a lot of ways, but those who radically criticized him were even further off base and would have never believe a Mac booting Windows was possible or forseen Apple's shift to being a consumer electronics company.
The guy is definitely a crank, but he also makes predicitons that are very different from most other people, and often, in all the yelling in what not, there is something worthwhile to pull out. - shanesemler, on 10/12/2007, -1/+6Dvorak makes me laugh. I enjoy his opinions, even if they are often way off base. He has what the knuckleheads that get all pissed of about him don't have: a healthy dose of skepticism about technology hype.
- eacrowley, on 10/12/2007, -14/+19Glad to see that people are starting to see what a fool Dvorak is. I guess it's time to let Marketwatch go as well, seems they posted this one twice today on Yahoo for maximum visibility. Digg can feed or starve the trolls....
- tarmithius, on 10/12/2007, -3/+8That is not true, they release new phone so people will think their phones are disposable, which to the cell phone manufacturers they are. Those new phone equal a constant revenue stream.
- neoncricket, on 10/12/2007, -6/+11If no one has seen or used it yet, why should Apple pull the plug on it? Maybe it's awesome.
- trghpy, on 10/12/2007, -1/+6"New models come out ALL the time. Look at Motorola...ROKR, SLVR, RAZR, KRZR, and the Q.
People complained that the bluetooth headsets couldn't hear music.....BAM...new phone.
Apple will never do this fast enough."
huh, new phone or a fix to the firmware... lets think about whats cheaper/faster - jicon, on 10/12/2007, -1/+5Dvorak had good points regarding cablemodems at the time. Once DOCSIS was introduced as a standard with cable modems allowing any brand to run on any network, competition could flourish, and prices could drop.
Also note at that time nearly NO cable operators had two way cablesystems. New amplifiers, replacement of 40 year old cable, replacement of one way splitters in homes were all the norm, and very expensive. Cable systems are notoriously noisy, and the cable modem in a lot of ways have helped cable operators get a better handle on their cable network, cleaning up the bad patches.
In 1998, Terayon was selling non-DOCSIS cable modems to a cable provider in Canada for over $350 a modem. Not cheap by any means. Terayon is no more. - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -5/+9That's nice.
Why do people always feel the need to tell me what they've buried and why they did so? - michaelchyles, on 10/12/2007, -0/+4Dvorak is a grumpy old man..
- burnblue, on 10/12/2007, -1/+4Why do most (I said most!) of the comments here attack the man instead of the points? Let's pretend Reggie Fils-Aime or somebody else said it.. anybody else. Then can we discuss the points mentioned instead of just repeating "This guy is a troll! This guy's never right! This guy's old!!"
Intelligent discussion does not facilitate personal attack. - MacParrot, on 10/12/2007, -1/+4"Dvorak is completely right and his whole argument makes sense."
His argument only makes sense if you buy his hook. Since the iPhone hasn't been released, no one can say how well it will or won't do.
"The iPhone will not succeed in a very crowded and already competitive market."
See point one.
"The iPod was not a success at version 1.0. It only became a success when iTunes was made available to Windows. Jobs said "hell would freeze over" when Apple develops something for Windows. That move was the right move. Could you imagine where the iPod would be if iTunes wasn't developed for Windows?"
I can't recall Jobs saying that Apple wouldn't develope for Windows. Apple has been developing for Windows for a long time. QuickTime, FileMaker, heck even Apple(Claris)Works was available for Windows before the iTunes/ iPod. With the iPod, Apple did a number of things to successfully gain market share beyond their Mac base. Opening iTunes for Windows was a very smart move as it allowed the vast majority of computer users (Obviously Windows) to try the iPod. Switching syncing the iPod from FireWire (which actually is better) to USB was another move made to increase market share. You are correct when you said that the iPod would not have been the sucess it's been without opening it up to Windows users.
"Another right move for Apple was to adopt Intel as it's primary processor. Virtually turning the Mac into PC-capable. That allowed people who can afford the expensive Mac to at least try it. If they didn't like it and needed to go back to Windows, they could do it."
I actually predicted that this wasn't going to happen when it was first rumored (and blogged about it as well...no I won't post a link. It's embaressing enough that I wrote it) and was stunned when Jobs made the announcement. I thought at the time that it was a bad move and possibly the end of Apple. I was obviously wrong as Apple's market share has increased each quarter since the release of the Intel Macs.
"With the iPhone, it's the Macintosh computer all over again. If Steve Jobs wanted the iPhone to be the next iPod, he HAD TO get all wireless carriers to accept it, because no one...and I mean NO ONE....switches Wireless Carriers because of phones. LOL..not unless you are a teenager or vain college student who likes to show off."
I don't agree with your assertion that the iPhone is the Mac again. This isn't 1984 and Apple isn't going alone. Cingular (ATT) has an exclusive for 2 years. After that, they are free to market it to anyone who wants it. If the iPhone takes off, Apple could very well agree to license it to other makers. They haven't done it for the Mac because it was already too late. The brief time they allowed clones did nothing for Apple other than diminish their already (late 90s) falling market share.
People do switch carriers for silly things like new phones. There have been many online discussions (look it up if you're interested) on how to get out of contracts simply to get the iPhone. Since all I use a cell phone for is to make calls, the iPhone does not interest me at this time (and I already use Cingular). It's subpar for an iPod (not nearly enough storage IMO) and it's other features, while cool looking, don't interest me enough to spend $500-600. - bingo000, on 10/12/2007, -6/+9I'll hold my breath till the phone is released! I still cant get over the battery issue..
- s73ve, on 10/12/2007, -11/+14John Dvorak should pull the plug on himself.
- reallydigginit, on 10/12/2007, -3/+6From what I understand about the author of this "Hang up on iPhone" article is a real self-important jerk. But what's that to do with iPhone?
DVORAK and others seem to be making the same points. So, let's take a look at them:
1. APPLE SHOULD BE AFRAIFD OF THE COMPITITION? This is by FAR the funniest point. Apple should be afraid of MOTOROLA and PALM?! This is too stupid. Yeah, I'm sure Apple is scared to death to enter a marketplace dominated by two companies on the verge of collapse. LMAO.
Look at it this way if you need to: APPLE HAS 11 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH!!!! On the off chance a joke of a company like MOT or PALM gave them any troubles, they could just buy the freakin' companies-- end of story.
2. THE IPHONE DOES NOTHING SPECIAL? This is true, but likewise stupid. Fact one: iPod did nothing special. There were lots of other MP3 players on the market at the time.
However, let me make my point FAR MORE CLEARLY: MOTO Razr.
Can a moderately decent phone with no new features and a key design asthetic penetrate the consumer market? How many people out there know of the RAZR? Crap phone, no new features, beautiful and slim, and they sold how many millions of those units?!
So, gimme a break. I am at this very moment holding in my hands ABSOLUTE PROOF that a beautiful phone, lacking in features can be a HUGE hit in the consumer market.
3. APPLE CAN'T CHANGE MODELS FAST ENOUGH? Right. That's why every Microsoft person on the planet likes to talk about how a new Mac OS and new Mac products come out way too often, thereby costing Apple users even more to stay current. I mean seriously, how many different iPod modifcations have come in the last 18 months alone? New OS every year. Several new iPODs a year. Several new desktop and laptop models every 18 months. Yeah, right. Apple won't be able to move fast enough. If there's one thing Apple is known for is not coming out with new stuff fast enough, right?
4, CELL PHONE MARGINS ARE RAZOR THIN. This is true. But it is not true of Apple. They are charging a premium for this phone, not to mention getting a cut from Cingular on new subscriptions and attempting to redisign the cell phone business model. Do you seriously think this phone will be $50 with a two-year contract? Niether do I?
FINAL POINT IS SAME AS THE FIRST: Nokia, RIM, MOT, PALM are the ones shaking in their boots about entering Apple's "buz-saw". Any fool stupid enough to take a couple of debt laden, one-trick pony companies like MOT or PALM over APPL with it's $11 Billion in cash, 0.0% debt, massive marketing machine, and inherent brand reputation for cool products (What is the phone market if not a market place for "cool products"?) get what they deserve.
Will this phone take over the world? Doubt it.
Can APPL knock the crap out of MOT and PALM? Easy. - frostieDude, on 10/12/2007, -1/+4@Topher06
Your argument is incoherent and all over the place. On the one hand, you are saying that the statement that the market is vibrant and on the other you are saying that phones have very few good features because that is what the public demands. Huh?
And most of your post is just name calling. Anyone who uses the word "fanboy" and then doesn't address actual points is a name calling idiot.
You basically say that the iPhone will fail, but then say that Apple will meet its goal of capturing 1% of the market. Which is it?
My predictions: iPhone supply will be insufficient to meet demand for the first 3-4 months. iPhone will come capture 1% of the market by the end of '08. Apple will not dominate the market for cell phones (of course not), but will prove people wrong who think they can't be a serious player.
I further predict that someone will call me a "fanboy" and make no significant contribution to the overall discussion. - barrygoldwater, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3Em...yep, Dvorak is irrelevant...and the number of comments here proves it.
- dulcimer, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3SOFTWARE, SOFTWARE, SOFTWARE! Come on, people! How many of us put up with that crap UI on our Verizon phones? The iPhone will be a success because of its software. People will wonder why they put up with such a lousy expirence on their phones for so long. I don't care about downloading music or video on my cell, yet every time I go to a Verizon store, they try to sell some crap feature. The integrated internet expirence on the iPhone will make it a winner. Sure, the hardware will sell some people, but it has been said before that there are already some nice looking phones on the market. It's the software, stupid!
- davodee, on 10/12/2007, -14/+17This guy is so full of his own importance. I don't want to buy the iPhone as I have no use for it, but just to agrivate him I hope it takes over the world!
...and then the phone spams him;) - Geckomind, on 10/12/2007, -2/+5Awesome! I love this man! Finally someone who stands up to the millions of wannabe Jobs clones. Stick it to 'em John! :D
- lochness, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3iPhone...schm-i-phone.....
Here in Australia there's only one carrier still using the old EDGE technology that the 2.5G iPhone requires and they have already stated that they have no interest in supporting the iPhone because it's essentially using OLD mobile phone technology that Australia has moved away from (to 3G).
Maybe when Apple decides to support markets outside North America (Asia, Europe, Australia) that have more advanced mobile phone standards then the MIGHT be onto ta winner. Oh... and the COST needs to come down by HALF. Then give me a call Steve... - TheCount, on 10/12/2007, -2/+5You can hate him if you want, but he raises several good points that anyone not blinded by the Apple machine could recognize. Hell, the iPhone isn't even in our hands yet, and there are ALREADY copycats on the way. If one company makes the "slimmest phone in the world", there is usually a new slimmest within a month or two. Apple will indeed have a hard time keeping up with hardware, and if you think the update iPods too often now, leaving you wishing you had waited a few weeks, you haven't seen anything yet.
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