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In 2001: Guy explains why you shouldn't invest in Apple

thestreet.com — "Don't buy Apple's (AAPL:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) stock. And if you own it, sell it. I know the company has a core following that is loyal, even cultlike, but the broader base of believers has been steadily eroding for years."

Bury

mkania 2 years 283 days ago, made popular 2 years 283 days ago

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shuffle, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2Apple keeps reinventing themselves, and show no sign of slowing down. Wait until the Intel based Macs come out and all the Apple fan boys who need to have the latest gen of Apple hardware NEED to purchase one, and the stock will again rise...
clubhouse54, on 10/12/2007, -0/+7Apple Computer: Going out of business for since 1976®
tuartboy, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1whoops
16x9, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2This does seem pretty funny in hindsight. But at the time even the most die hard Apple supporter had to be wondering if Apple's days were numbered.

I am certainly happy that now Apple isn't just surviving but it is also prospering. It makes for a healthier computer industry and it's good for consumers (regardless of whether you are a Mac user, a Windows user or a Linux user).
ghostwheelppk, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2lol

"Don't buy Apple's (AAPL:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) stock. And if you own it, sell it."

later (standard disclaimer):
Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to arne@alsincapital.com.

"Retail Stores: It's desperation time in Cupertino, Calif., as Apple is going into the retail store business to ensure that its products receive enough attention."

closing price week of Nov 25 2005: Apple Stock Quote: 69.34 ( +2.23 )

genius!

Should we open a set of Darwin Awards for finance?
Carbito, on 10/12/2007, -2/+0Seems like good advice, Apple has been one business failure after another with no sign of ever improving. Its sad that a company with such a history has fallen so low, sadly all Steve Jobs will ever be remembered for is selling iPods.
skellener, on 10/12/2007, -2/+1Then I guess all Bill Gates will ever be remembered for is the blue screen of death.

Go Apple!
cyclotron, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Yeah, my parents listened to this nonsense 20 years ago. And missed out. When I got some money, though, I ignored these guys. I am happy about it.
thavok, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2The only thing that Steve Jobs will be know for is creating a profitable product for apple and causing more then a million users to switch last year.
thavok, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1Oh yea forgot to mention I double money in apple since I bought in in February.
txgeek, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3No one could have predicted that the iPod and the Apple stores would be such a success, considering all the similar failures by late 2001. In hindsight what this guy had to say looks ridiculous, but it was sound business advice at the time. Apple didn't and still doesn't fit the model of a successful company, but it keeps breaking that model time and time again.
speel, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0"By Arne Alsin
Special to TheStreet.com
10/25/2001 07:23 AM EDT"

man i bet this guy has his foot in his mouth now
drtex, on 10/12/2007, -1/+0Funny, If Apple makes a few minor changes to there marketing and products (like selling OSXx86 in boxes as well), they could easily kill MS.
PathDaemon, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2@"No one could have predicted that the iPod and the Apple stores would be such a success, considering all the similar failures by late 2001."

Apple is known for doing crazy things that work. Even from the beginning, when they created the personal computer. Those were the days when they got laughed at for proposing that. Then MS stole it and made it crappy and the rest is history.

Apple's still winning in my book.
matcrawf, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0a agree with thavok . up more than 100% on my investment in the past 12 months. 'apple cannot compete on price' ? It's like comparing BMW to volkswagon. essentially he says shut down the BMW plants, too expensive!
RobCowie, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Sheer lunacy... I wouldn't take investment advice from this guy.
Nateski, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Man I'd go shoot myself if I wrote that crap.
Jarda, on 10/12/2007, -2/+1Yes, Microsoft has been dead since 2000.
They've only made 12 billion pure profit this year. Compare this to Apple: 276 million profit(46x less).
WOW i bet Bill is already dead.
unclejesse0, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Sucks for that guy.
Pacotheparrot, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0GG Noob
elfguy, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Anyone with a brain knows not to listen to analysts. Or journalists.
hansi, on 10/12/2007, -1/+0dumbass
kefkakrist, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1M$ with $12 billion in profit... Makes you wonder why they need the X360 at all.
Doofy, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0He's the poster child for FUD.
longman2g, on 10/12/2007, -2/+0"Funny, If Apple makes a few minor changes to there marketing and products (like selling OSXx86 in boxes as well), they could easily kill MS."

ha, kill MS, good one dumbass
hyperpasta, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2I don't balme him. The iPod and Apple retail didn't make much sense at the time. Now both are lucratively succesful. I don't think Apple can license Mac OS X to other companies yet - Microsft would get scared and bury them somehow: no Office:Mac, more Windows R+D, lower prices, etc. Apple needs to gain quietly for a little while first.
SmeRndmGy, on 10/12/2007, -3/+0the guy made a good point at the time. at that time apple was a computer company, and mp3s were easily available free online to even the stupidest computer users. As a computer company apple is basically dead. sure they have their legions of followers who say that it doesnt matter that it has a slower processor and costs more and wont run any applications, its still "better" somehow. ipods and itunes are responsible for apple's recent success. this is because ipods have become trendy. In a few years people will get over this trend and will realize that there are cheaper players available with more features. and these players wont run songs from itunes (gotta love that DRM). At this point apple will be basically finished. sure there are some people who will pay twice as much for a slower computer because its white, but most of us have more common sense than that. Apple has destroyed digital music with their restrictive DRM that paved the way for all sorts of other problems like the recent Sony incident. we need universally compatible files without any built in restrictions telling you what you can and can't do with your music. The idea is to prevent people from sharing the music they buy, but this makes no sense. Basically any song you want can be downloaded for free. If you are the guy who buys his music then you probably wont share it anyways. they need to accept the fact that their music WILL be available for free online and stop shoving their restrictions down their customer's throats.
LeNath, on 10/12/2007, -1/+0Analysts are human being: from time to time they make mistake and it's part of their job. If predicting the future of any company was so easy, everybody would do it. To me, not worth mentioning at all.
seriypshick, on 10/12/2007, -1/+0"Funny, If Apple makes a few minor changes to there marketing and products (like selling OSXx86 in boxes as well), they could easily kill MS."

Hell, yeah!
MikeMacMan, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Sucks to be this guy...
doxtorray, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1Apple has always been the BMW of computing. As long as one understands that, they won't make stupid statements along the lines of
PCs are commodities
no one will pay more for one than he has to
Apple's prices are too high
Apple must die.
Apple will survive, as will BMW, as long as they delivering a "driving experience" that is significantly different from that of other "vehicles," in a way that a significant number of "drivers" are willing to pay for.
Apple can live taking one-third of the most demanding 15% of the PC market. This guy was sentencing them to death for doing that.
The business model that doesn't work as well (either for profits or longevity) is shooting for one-third of the lower 85% of the PC market.
Gringo, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Apple's success is good for everyone! Microsoft has realized if they don't come up with something good ie more stable, secure, and a better GUI they risk losing even more of the market share.
Whether you are a Mac user or a PC user, we are in a win-win situation.
goldenratiophi, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1"Funny, If Apple makes a few minor changes to there marketing and products (like selling OSXx86 in boxes as well), they could easily kill MS."

Nice to think about that, but no. Unfortunately, most of the world (or at least the US) is living under a rock when it comes to technology. It sounds pessimistic, but it's true. I asked my friend why he wouldn't consider getting a Mac, and he said that they didn't have internet or email. Even if Apple did some marketing tweaks (ex. more commercials, cough cough; It's been years since I've seen a Mac commercial where I live) most people wouldn't want to learn a whole new OS, no matter how easy-to-use it already is.
CaptenSpaulding, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0@ SmeRndmGy

maybe we'll be digging your comment in 4 years
_skin_, on 10/12/2007, -1/+0arne@alsincapital.com

Might as well tell him that you think he is a jack ass. But even still. Everyone makes mistakes. This mistake however gets the Don's "YOUR FIRED!"
whitesanjuro, on 10/12/2007, -2/+0haha...microsoft has lost 4 billion dollars on xbox in 4 years, can't wait to see them bleed out some more with the ridiculous 360.
WillCodeForFood, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Heh. That's what I heard another friend of mine who hates Apple say when it was at $40. Now it's at $70. Guess he was just a tad off .
robche, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1haha its so funny, everyone is praising apples success and saying microsoft is dead... i recall all the apple fanboys rejoicing when they heard that apple was ALMOST worth as much as Dell... Almost.. A computer software/hardware/iPod company is almost worth as much as a company that merely sells hardware.. and your calling microsoft is dead... geeze.. when will use realise that the ipod can only last so long, and with the 'intel macs' so what? its like google.. you could make another search engine but everyone will still use google, apple is making intel macs, but everyone will still use windows
citizenpain, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0HA haaa!
grantmiller, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0I'm a Mac user and honestly I think that the stock is overvalued. Though I believe the company will remain healthy, I doubt that they will be able to post the future abnormal returns suggested by the current P/E of 45 and price-to-book of 9. Unless, Apple introduces products beyond its iPod and computer lines I do not believe that they will be able to achieve 20% + ROEs necessary to maintain its current stock price.
Coffee33, on 10/12/2007, -1/+0I will tell you why you shouldn't invest in apple...cause there sales suck something aweful. The only thing that keeps apple afloat are Japan (they love the mac), ipods, and Bill Gates (see Bill owning Jobs).
http://www.geek2us.net
Coffee
FishyJoe, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0At the time though, Apple still had a lot of cash unlike the vast majority of computer/internet companies of the era.
Mudcrutch, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0"microsoft has lost 4 billion dollars on xbox in 4 years, can't wait to see them bleed out some more with the ridiculous 360."

proof?
cintra, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0"apple is making intel macs, but everyone will still use windows"

..and Linux ;-)
Berkana, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Quoted from the article: "To survive, Apple has to convince Windows users to migrate to the Mac platform. But since Apple is not competitive on either price or applications, there is no compelling reason for users to switch. The game is effectively over."

Applications (that matter to me) convinced me to switch: this fellow completley ignores the fact that there are some applications that are Mac Centric, or whose Mac counterparts are superior to the windows equivalents. Apple's pro tools, for example, are nothing to laugh at; if your profession uses them to great effect, the Mac is competitive in applications.
Berkana, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0. . . also, he presumes that price and applications are the only compelling reasons for users to switch. How about ease of maintenance? Not having to dig out spyware that loads itself onto your computer simply by being online is a pretty compelling reason. Better (though imperfect) security is a pretty compelling reason.
CaptenSpaulding, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0I wouldn't speculate as to how big of an impact macOSx86 will have. Otherwise you'll end up looking like a jack-ass in 5 years. One thing's for sure though, it'll break down one critical wall to its adoption for many people. A smart thing, IMO, would be to have a stripped down free livecd version (if possible) that people could try out. The lesser the impact, the more people will take to it. Frankly, MS can only lose people to apple. But you're an idiot if you try to guess how many.
biocell, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0I like how Guy forgot to to add this Apple foresight to his list http://www.alsincapital.com/columns.php
I wonder how many other bad fore sights he forgot... How about a new Google sport... anyone want to play?
antiTRACE, on 10/12/2007, -1/+0When will you Apple humpers realise that Apple isn't making their fortune with MACs, they're making it with iPODS, silly rabbits...
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In 2001: Guy explains why you shouldn't invest in Apple

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