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David Pogue: There will probably never be an iPhone

pogue.blogs.nytimes.com — Everyone ’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cellphone. My answer is, “Probably never.”

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  • Artifez, on 10/12/2007, -2/+6Hell, it's all rumor but it seems to be coming Q1 2007.

    http://www.gizmodo.com/gadgets/cellphones/cingular-exclusive-on-apple-iphone-203248.php
    • wphj, on 10/12/2007, -5/+5Not only is it a rumor, it's not far fetched at all.
      Music Playing phones suck now, but they won't in a few years. Inevitably, someone will come out with something cool enough to get people to use it instead of a separate iPod. I'd love to be able to just carry one device around, but nothing is good enough now.

      It'd be stupid of Apple not to try to be that "someone"
    • Ascendant, on 10/12/2007, -1/+11There's been a rumor that the iPhone is coming out "next quarter" for the past, what, eight quarters?

      Ditto for the "real" "touchscreen" video iPod.
    • YoungBrews, on 10/12/2007, -3/+8When it comes out, I'll call you from my flying car!
  • Herolint, on 10/12/2007, -1/+10If "everyone" is always asking, then perhaps Apple should consider doing a cell phone. It seems the market is already there.
    • jpf., on 10/12/2007, -0/+8At this point I'm wondering if this is a Chicken/Egg thing. Which came first? The rumor or the product idea?
  • thenamestj, on 10/12/2007, -1/+9I agree that it'll probably won't come out. I'm sure deep inside of Apple HQ that there's a phone prototype that will never see the light of day.
    • MikeCerm, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1Finally, some sanity! The cellular market in America is like a minefield of red-tape. I just don't think that Apple is interested in getting into it.

      If they wanted to do it "right", they'd have to become a MVNO, and I really doubt that they'd be able to make enough phone selling hardware (phones) to make it worth their while. Apple and their shareholders don't like being in low-margin businesses, and that's what the cellular market would be for them.
  • zetsurin, on 10/12/2007, -0/+6I am willing to believe this guy. I have no faith. I am iPhone atheist unless I actually meet iPhone ;)
  • vbagate, on 10/12/2007, -4/+2I hope it does materialize. I agree, with all the hype, it would be in apple's interest. Ofcourse some have argued there already is an iPhone - - Chocolate... I mean a relative click wheel... Come on Verizon ;P
  • monkeyrun, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2I do agree there might never be an iPhone.

    BUT this is Steve Jobs and Apple we are talking about here. They are not exactly the kind of people who really give a crap about what other people think. They'll sell something they think is good enough, other people's (aka phone carriers) opinion won't really bother them at all.
    • Wetzilla, on 10/12/2007, -5/+2The whole point of this article is that they don't have control. Steve Jobs may not care what the carriers think, but then no carrier would offer it, so no one could use it.
    • bbatsell, on 10/12/2007, -1/+9http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MVNO
    • monkeyrun, on 10/12/2007, -1/+3Phone carriers really do not have the final say on which phone apple could sell.

      Apple has the distribution network for their own products.
    • geminitojanus, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2Considering Apple's continued iPod success will require some kind of "Purchase-on-the-Go" system for the iPod, and the ability to import songs purchased from your iPod into iTunes, it's a virtual certainty that it's coming, it's just a matter of when they get everything legally worked out. Quite frankly, this last release of the iPod solved the last problem: how to search for a song on iTunes Music Store via the iPod interface. (And becoming an MVNO just for your Mobile iTunes Store service would make a lot more sense than becoming an MVNO to sell your cool trick gadget phone, as they're not all that profitable).

      However, an iPhone would require a lot more engineering than that, and it wouldn't make sense to be an MVNO if you wanted to distribute an iPhone (because as an MVNO, you'd be limiting your phone service to people who buy your coverage, instead of letting your customers pick whatever network they want to use), which gives credence to the Cingular-exclusive iPhone being released Q107 rumors that are flying around now.
  • Walker2323, on 10/12/2007, -6/+12You can hear the hearts of a million Apple fanboy's hearts breaking.
    • flag564, on 10/12/2007, -7/+2I can also hear the sounds of their inhailers as they have a massive panic attack.
    • zigziggityzoo, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1(now the ears of my ears awake and now the eyes of my eyes are opened) -ee cummings.

      and the hearts of their hearts are broken. (seriously, say hearts again...)
    • hurfydurfur, on 10/12/2007, -3/+1Two people walk into a bar. One sits down, has a drink and hopes a conversation happens. The other one sits down, has a drink and hopes a fight breaks out.

      Who is wrong? Depends. Is the world a naturally violent place, should we practice fighting?

      Two people see Flip3D in Vista. One thinks "this is awesome" and gets excited. The other one thinks "3d desktops have never translated right, this is useless".

      Who is wrong? Depends. Is technology positive and hopeful? Should we practice fighting?
  • heavensblade23, on 10/12/2007, -1/+9The same argument he makes about veto power, etc applied to the music industry and the iTMS.
  • specialedd, on 10/12/2007, -6/+2Why? I have my Treo with a 2 GB SD card and tons of MP3s without DRM restrictions... Phone, MP3s, Camera, PDA, PDFs, Word, Excel, Chess, and more...
    • haggie, on 10/12/2007, -6/+4Same here, but I was able to find a hack for the Palm SD driver to support 4GB. Who wants to haul around a DRM'ed iPod AND a cell phone when I have a cell phone, MP3 player, email, basic browser, games, camera, etc... on one device. iPods are for sheeple.

      Luckily, the Mac fanboys have their ipod in one hand, their ***** in another, and Steve Jobs on the LCD so they won't be able to digg me down!
    • t3hX, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1Hey, I'm a Mac user and I have a Palm TX that I tend to use as a MP3 player. What's wrong with the treo? It exists, the iPhone doesn't (yet). So why would anyone be digging you down. Maybe if it was a Windows Mobile treo?
  • yeahbuddy, on 10/12/2007, -2/+5One man's opinion. Meh. It'll be here before we know it.
  • Daveecee, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1But... Patents!
  • Oakenshield, on 10/12/2007, -0/+6Because he knows. No, really.
  • mywhitenoise, on 10/12/2007, -1/+5i'm sure it will come out, didn't they just sign a 6 month contract with Cingular?
  • monergism, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1Good. I mean it's bad enough watching people drive with a cell phone. Now they want to be able to put it to their ear and listen to it? That's crazy talk.
  • Kazrog, on 10/12/2007, -7/+2Apple already partnered with Motorola on the ROKR, and I think that's as far as they want to go down the path of the Apple-branded cell phone.

    Apple realizes that cellular phones are going to diminish in favor of VoIP, and I'm sure they'd rather leverage iChat AV enabled digital lifestyle devices with a massive WiFi umbrella than deal with cellular technology limitations. But what do I know....
    • lakawak, on 10/12/2007, -1/+6What? I think YOU are the only one who thinks that cell phones will diminish any time soon.

      Let's see...being able to call anyone anywhere you are, or having to look for a WiFi hotspot to make a call. Right. Cell phones are ging to die soon . That's it.
    • ptrcd003, on 10/12/2007, -2/+1Someone do the crazy fast digg up for lakawak, accidentally dugg him down.
    • Macfreq, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Interesting thought, since Google has been pioneering Municipal WiFi in NorCal; I like that idea. Maybe the next version of iChat will have GTalk accounts included.
    • Kazrog, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1We all know that Apple is all about pushing the envelope. Cell phones are so 1990.
    • hurfydurfur, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3I guess the biggest reason everyone keeps saying "Apple needs to make an iPhone" is because they don't have one, right? Like the Microsoft PC? Or the Dell OS?
    • Kazrog, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1My prediction: Apple is going to come out with a VoIP phone. Please don't mod me down just because you disagree. I will laugh at you all when it happens. :P
      http://www.kazrog.com/2006/09/why-apple-wont-make-cell-phone.html
  • galore, on 10/12/2007, -2/+3That article assumes that Apple can only sell via network operators and their contract-supported business plan that hides the true cost of a cell phone.

    Not true.

    Apple already has the manufacturing for the iPod sorted out. They have tons of SW engineers. And it costs only a few dollars to add a GSM or UMTS chipset to their iPods.

    After some RnD expense on a UI for a cell phone and after slapping a GSM or UMTS chipset into their iPods, field tests and RF certifications, they have their iPhone which costs them maybe $10 more to produce than a Nano.

    Then Apple can advertise it that you can just pop your T-mobile or Cingular SIM into your iPhone and voila you have an Apple cell phone that Apple sold you for the price of an iPod + a few bucks without having to suck up to any carrier.


    • dp9ny, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2wasn't the razr $499 w/ contract at release
    • jonj, on 10/12/2007, -1/+2ha... uh, nothing is ever as simple as "slapping a GSM or UMTS chipset" in there. and it certainly wouldn't cost a mere "couple of dollars" per unit.
    • galore, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1@jonj:

      "ha... uh, nothing is ever as simple as "slapping a GSM or UMTS chipset" in there. and it certainly wouldn't cost a mere "couple of dollars" per unit."

      Well, I happen to work at a major manufacturer of GSM and UMTS chipsets and help cell phone OEMs with their firmware integration and know how much those chipsets are. What are your credentials to back up your sarcastic snark?
    • jonj, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1@galore:

      ah, credential flashing, it is? i work for motorola. and while a GSM or UMTS chipset is a swappable thing, integrating phone capabilities into the device isn't a trivial matter.

      you are right, though; apple is uniquely posiitioned with their experience of hardware and software engineering, to be able to put such a device together. they're far more experienced than a company like, say, microsoft, who relies on 3rd parties for a lot of their hardware design (look at the zune!). i just think that you're underestimating the "soft touch" of the operating system design that goes into a phone. putting a chipset into an ipod is easy. but redesigning their iPod operating system to handle all of the normal functions of a phone in addition to its normal music functions? that's the hard part.
    • galore, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1I am aware how difficult it is to integrate a high level OS like Symbian/S60 or Linux/QT and all the effort that goes into a production quality phone, especially if you want accelerated multimedia and you use the baseport and multimedia code of a chipset manufacturer. My "slapping on" use of language referred to the phone call capability - there is no RnD to speak of necessary on Apple's part.

      But I guess that Apple should be able to handle the SW part easily - esp. if they use their own OS, given that they have a super strong SW background. And per production unit, I am sure adding cell phone circuits + cost of RnD is < $10
  • pcharles23, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:IRYi2g_9LlIJ:the.taoofmac.com/space/iPhone+the.taoofmac.com/space/iPhone&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=2&client=safari

    Cache of the link on that blog...
    "the taoofmac com space iphone"

  • illegalchuck, on 10/12/2007, -2/+2There is no spoon, I mean, iPhone.
  • zbeast, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2Whats the point of having an iPhone?
    There's would simply be not enough margin in the pricing structure to support it.
    Cell Phone company's make all there money in selling you cheap phones and over priced phone service.
    Apple makes it money on selling you over prices mp3 players and cheap music.

    Your iPhone would cost you $600 to $700 dollars for apples to hit there normal 80% margins.

  • lakawak, on 10/12/2007, -1/+4Has anyone given any thought to the fact that if Apple came out with a phne that played music as well as the iPod that the demand for iPods would plummet?

    SEVERAL polls have shown that most people really just want the ability to play music on their iPods. Video is noce, but not a huge priority to all but a small minority. And most people are also not all that concerned with having 60 Gig or so. That is why the Nano is so popular.

    So, think about it. If you can get a phone that pretty much does everything the Nano does, why would you want to carry around a second device?

    Apple is not going to cannibalize their money maker any time soon. Unless the iPod sales start to drop, it will not happen. So...if you want an iPhone, root for the Zune.
    • dp9ny, on 10/12/2007, -1/+2Thats the bottom line
    • finite, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1The Nokia 770 already makes a good wifi phone today, and also works well as network music and video player, with 800x600 at 225dpi. And unlike the Zune, it doesn't infect my files with that wacky 3-day 3-play DRM.

      ***** the Zune, and the iPod, and the iPhone. Cheap wifi-enabled pocket hard drives can't be that far off (zune doesn't count, until it is hacked to run a real OS).
    • lakawak, on 10/12/2007, -1/+0finite...how many times do you need to be told that the Zune does NOT infect a file with DRM (if it doesn't already have it) before you stop repeating that *****?
      I am SURE you already knew that, but you didn't want to let FACTS get in the way of a good bitchfest about Microsoft.
    • finite, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1@lakawak, Actually if you read the Zune Insiders blog where that detail first originated, and where it was also supposedly corrected, you will see that Zune actually DOES apply the 'built-in limitations' to previously un-limited files. http://www.zuneinsider.com/2006/09/zune_and_drm_or.html

      Microsoft's PR tool is attempting to deceptively imply that applying 'built in limitations' is somehow different from 'applying DRM': (direct MS quote here) "Zune to Zune Sharing won't apply any DRM to that song. The 3-day/3-play limitation is built into the device, and it only applies on the Zune device"

      What a load of *****. Who do they think they're fooling? (sadly, they're actually fooling many people, take digg user lakawak for instance...)
  • jonj, on 10/12/2007, -1/+3apple doesn't have the RF engineering experience to execute a phone that will be able to compete in the big leagues. the only "iPhone" would be a device created by Moto, LG, Samsung, or one of the others who actually knows how to make a phone. Hint - it's not that simple!
  • lakawak, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2Another thing to think about. A big reason why the iPod hit it so big is that when they came out, there was not really much in the way of real competition. Yes, they were not he first by any means, but the competition was not as great as it is with cell phones. That was a HUGE advantage for Apple.

    And that is an advantage that Apple would not have in the cell phone business. People already have a cell phone that they like. They are not going to junk their current 6 month old phone just to get one made by Apple.

    And I hate to break it to the fanboys, but without that advantage, Apple really hasn't done much with any other product.
    • aristobrat, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0In the MP3 phone market, what's the "real competition"? LG's new Chocolate?

      The MP3 phone market is just as new as the MP3 player market was when Apple entered it, and anyone has the chance of winning it now. It just depends on who makes the best devices first.

      And FWIW, not everyone has a 6-month old phone that they like. For every person that just re-up'ed their cell phone contract today (and got a new phone), there's someone whose contract is up tomorrow.

      Most folks I know get a new phone when their contract is up. Now they can get a new phone and a new MP3 player at the same time.
    • lakawak, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1That is not the point. The point is that they are not just competing with just MP3 phones. They are competing with ALL cell phones. The market is just not big enough for MP3 cell phones, especially when you consider the fact that pretty much every single iPhone sold will mean one less iPod sold. Even obtaining a similar market share of the MP3 cell phone market will not be reason enough to do this.
  • pkulak, on 10/12/2007, -1/+2Apple isn't LG. If Apple puts out a phone, the carriers will fall all over themselves to carry it and probably won't even dare try to "veto" something.
    • aristobrat, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1If RIM can keep pumping model after model of new BlackBerrys out and not have the carriers veto anything (core feature wise), I don't think Apple would have any problems getting the carriers to leave the phone alone.
    • lakawak, on 10/12/2007, -1/+0How is fantasyland? Do you EVER come back to reality?

      The phone companies couldn't care less about Apple. They wouldn't make one extra dime off it. You really think people that don't already HAVE a cell pplan will sign up just for an Apple phone?

      And quite frankly, if you think people are going to switch providers just to get it either, you are REALLY overestimating Apple's popularity in the reald world.

      Remember, NO ONE agrees with you. You are a joke. What you think is popular is NOT popular to 99% of the world. Your life will always be like that. You should be used to it by now.
  • glucero, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0I'm excited about an Apple phone but really I am just as excited about an actual released product. The Sony Ericsson W810 is a very cool phone but it's not available in the states. I think if it had iTunes support it would be the best phone out there. No reason for Apple to try to reinvent the wheel. Sony Ericsson in the Apple of cell phones.

    In an interview with an executive for the Americas, she said she would love to work with Apple and have support for their technologies built in. That was over a year ago.
  • TexMachina, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1Very shortsighted if true. I have 2GB on my phone for MP3's and there will be more space in the future as memory cards increase. Writing.. meet wall.
  • PapaSmurf3, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0The problem is that Apple can't control the fact that cell phone reception sucks.
    How many people are happy with their ipods?
    Now, how many people are happy with their cell phone provider?

    Apple doesn't want their products associated with unhappy customers.
  • Dotnetsky, on 10/12/2007, -2/+1Who needs an iPhone? I play high quality mp3 and Windows Media on my Audiovox Smartphone with Windows Media Player 10 and the sound quality is outstanding.
    And, I too have a 2GB card - room for loads of music.
  • n3xg3n, on 10/12/2007, -2/+1Yes!!!! i don't want apple to own the word "Phone" too =[
  • hxrealm, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0If there isn't an iPhone in the first quarter of 2007, I'll do something too disturbing to be described here.
  • DelMonte, on 10/12/2007, -0/+11. When asked about the iPhone at their last financial results conference, Apple officially stated that "they're not sitting around doing nothing (about it)". So that was an admission that they are working on a phone.

    2. There are clear indications found in the first gen iPod nano Firmware (1.2) showing that Apple at least experimented with a cellphone UI on iPods.

    Pogue is a nice and funny guy, but he's looking for hits on this one.

  • Scott2, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1Ah, I can always count on David Pogue to have some sense . . .
  • alexeykazansky, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0I will not buy iPod if I have a useful phone that can play music as iPod does, and I guess, we will have that kind of phone in a year or two, whatever Apple makes it or not. If they don't do that, they'll just loose the market share.
    • lakawak, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0COME ON DIGG! How ***** hard is it to learn the word LOSE?

      And the Digg community makes fun of MySpace users!
  • cutebanana, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0why should Apple make an iPhone ? Unless someone manage to automatically create a service that allows the ringer to automatically send mp3s over call tones...
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