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98 Comments
- MJ420, on 10/12/2007, -7/+43eh?...how do you compare a cell phone to a game console?
- Murdats, on 10/12/2007, -8/+40no, to get all the rabid apple fans buying more then one, you need a nakid steve jobs posing with it
- tektalk, on 10/12/2007, -7/+32We just need some naked models to pose with the iPhone to sell 10 million.
- ntsf, on 10/12/2007, -5/+22except the models won't be the part that draws most of the buyers to the iPhone.
- seanfrank, on 10/12/2007, -11/+25Because Apple won't GIVE away new features through an update, they'll release a new phone and make you pay for the new features in about a year and a half.
- superkendall, on 10/12/2007, -10/+22Demand for this phone is underestimated, because they are only looking at people who have smartphones today instead of the slent mass f people that want a smart phone that does not suck and therefore do not have one currently. It funny they look at numbers for an industry that has never manged to make great products or market them very well, and derive potential Apple iPhone sales numbers from that data.
I think Apple is giving a very conservative estimate. eBay is going to be very good to early iPhone buyers... - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -3/+15i don't think any company could afford to dump those kinds of development and R&D costs into a product if they thought they were only moving 1 million in the first year.
- inactive, on 10/12/2007, -3/+10unlikely. ipod was all off the shelf components. the design was spectacular but it didn't require any new hardware development. even the software was simple if elegant. i bet you'll find they were profitable in their first year.
- johnpaul191, on 10/12/2007, -1/+8i know somebody that paid $700+ for some Nokia chrome slider phone a few years back (maybe 10?). worst battery life and signal of any phone at the time, but they still sold a bunch. he was also one of the first people to buy the RAZR and as other people pointed out, they were a hit at $500 (and people were really paying that much). obviously there is a large segment of the phone market that does not see a $400 phone as a deal breaker if it is something they really want.
look how much somebody will pay for a nice analog watch. hell, look how much people pay for jewelry and it doesn't do a freakin' thing but look nice. obviously anyone that declares iPhone a failure in the making because *they* would not buy one is incredibly short-sighted. i won't be buying one either, but i can see the appeal. i have no idea what kind of sales that will become, but i don't know anything about how phones sell, or smart phones or anything like that.
good luck to them.... competition always leads to better choices for the consumer. if nothing else Apple is introducing some features that should make the other phone manufacturers kick it up a notch. - Quix, on 10/12/2007, -13/+19"I doubt that they will sell even 5 mil in 2008, its a good phone but its too expensive for most people" - dominasian
Please. The RAZR started at $500 and it's done just fine. High-end PDAs were well over $500 for years. And several smart phones currently list for $400 and up. For the features offered by the iPhone, there will be plenty of consumers willing to pay the price of entry. "Too expensive for most people?" Sure. But "most people" aren't the target audience for a device like this, or any of its direct competitors. "Most people" want a free phone with few bells and whistles, and that's what "most people" get.
Hold on to that "5 million iPhones in 2008" guesstimate though. We'll all have a good laugh about it in 2009. - rhombusleech, on 10/12/2007, -6/+12everyone keeps dumping on it, that the only thing going for it is a 'nice UI'... umm.. isn't that the number one complaint of phones nowadays; horrible UIs?
This things doesn't everything my current phone does, only 10x better.being a current treo user under a verizon contract that expires in July, I am seriously considering the jump to the iPhone. - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -3/+9Apple will have a hard time selling the iPhone because people are stuck with their own providers and don't want to pay the termination fee, and also lots of people think Cingular has a bad reputation.
- Firehed, on 10/12/2007, -1/+6One percent of a 1B market (which is 10M phones). That's probably where you got the 'one'. I don't remember hearing ten million specifically either, so it's quite plausible that you just remembered the wrong unit.
- armour, on 10/12/2007, -1/+6Well lets look at it this way unless Apple gets FIPS 140-2 SECURITY CERTIFICATION I don’t think the Government will touch it. As for many other companies after the recent Wal-Mart and the other long laundry list of leaked information from text messaging from regular cell phones Blackberry is going to be the only player in Town.
You really think just by putting a TOY in a CIO's hands is going to sway them to change over an entire infrastructure and change a number of products what do you thing the ROI is going to be on that one? Please step back in to reality. I know organizations that wouldn’t give out Smart phones on the palm or MS platform as there was no real effective way of locking them down with out third party security software. Also the I-Phone has not Even been proven in the Push E-mail reliability and unless the they had a deal with NTP struck I don’t think they have come up with any thing new that would be able not to infringe on there current holding (even though NTP is most likely going to lose it in the near future I don’t think apple Would risk it as it would be to large of a liability.)
And how do you figure the black berry sucks? Please explain this? Is it because your work gave it to you its reliable and sends and receives e-mail really well. Or is it because it’s not a flashy MP3 playing gaming toy for you?
The i-Phone is a Consumer electronic phone not a corporate work tool so stop the comparisons
And for the earlier person who says who cares if they don’t meet the sales targets? I would have to say the shareholders, enough said on that one. - steveoco, on 10/12/2007, -1/+5A shuffle isn't a very costly device. I have a 4G and a shuffle because it was only 90au dollars.
If it were purely a phone with a lower price, I think it will be more justifiable purchase.
The ipod software seems to bloat the price and people don't need a second ipod? - maninblac1, on 10/12/2007, -0/+4The tiny problem is apple signed with the worst cell phone company in the nation. Objectively speaking, http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/155547_cell07.html . And for that, the demand for iphone is exactly as predicted.
- handler, on 10/12/2007, -2/+6Theres always some ***** claim trying to create doubt. The topic today about 400 million in profit from the Iphone ads contradicts this claim. People are intrested like crazy about this phone and it will sell like mad when phone companies have offers with the iphone.
- cdawzrd, on 10/12/2007, -3/+6nah, its only about 12 hours of bittorrent
- gmoney1, on 10/12/2007, -9/+12Didn't jobs originally say they just wanted one million? I don't remember hearing 10 million.
- superkendall, on 10/12/2007, -3/+6A) It's $500
B) Yes, lots of people already pay lots of money for phones. Lots of people drive big expensive cars and live in expensive houses. In the scheme of things, a $500 phone is really nothing considering that cost is spread over two years. - gmoney1, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2Oh Ok, thanks for clearing that up for me, makes sense now
- cthellis, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2They said both "one percent" and "ten million," so you may be transposing the two.
- cameron074, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2and aren't they only going to be available to cingular customers?
how many cingular users do you think will switch to it? - Agret, on 10/12/2007, -7/+9"For the features offered by the iPhone, there will be plenty of consumers willing to pay the price of entry."
What? It doesn't even have all the features of currently released smart phones. You'd have to be a hell of a fanboy or an idiot to buy an iPhone - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -1/+3Just wait. Apple took the idea of under-promising and over-delivering quite seriously. Some may be familiar with the CEO-God wars of the 90s where Steve Jobs and Steve Case had quite the feud going, but Steve Jobs chose to rub matters into Steve Cases face by making his slogan a reality.
Since then, Apple has thrived and AOL is aol. - Ireland, on 10/12/2007, -1/+2So his real argument is about video? Well I just looked in the latest iTunes and there's a video sensor rating setcion in the parental controls tab for some countires in Europe, and the iPhone isn't due here till at least September - so I guess that wont be a factor then.
- iAmanalias, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1@canum
"I hope this product goes down in flames"
"when I'm insecure enough to where I have to buy a phone that 'defines me' then I deserve to be shot."
"I'd rather buy a phone ro black berry that works, thanks."
Let me fix this for you by leaving out the terms not necessary in your post.
I go down in flames, and deserve to be shot. I'm insecure enough to rather buy a phone or black berry, thanks.
@armour
You have no idea of how marketing works or the intended audience for this product. It will be an amazing success compared to Nokia, Sony, or Motorola's offerings. The Razor costed how much initially?
It's going to be a major win for Apple, and no matter how much some of you wish it to fail, it will not.
You want to discuss security? Do some more research on the FIPS 140-2 rating. *cough* backdoor *cough* Apple has it's own security for protecting product information in place much like other major corporations, and government entities. Have you ever heard a canary? Sometimes it's beneficial to leak information that is not quite what it really is in order to find a leak. Besides, I'm not so sure the (in)secure customer is the target market at this point or any in the future, nor do I think it will be necessary to capture a nice percentage of the marketplace.
@all
If you think the 'prada' group will be buying this, and only that group, then rethink your hypothesis. It isn't. This phone apears to be a better mouse trap for the regular phone market / mp3, as well as potential smartphone customers like myself who just cringe at the current offerings. - digitalarcanum, on 10/12/2007, -1/+2iPhone is gonna be the N-Gage all over again. I hope this product goes down in flames. when I'm insecure enough to where I have to buy a phone that "defines me" then I deserve to be shot. I'd rather buy a phone or black berry that works, thanks.
- steveoco, on 10/12/2007, -2/+3Legit question... do you think people will be hesitant to get an iphone because they already have an ipod and it makes there original and favorite gadget redundant?
- inactive, on 10/12/2007, -3/+4Maybe. Why would you want to listen to music on an iPhone? It'll drain the talk-time battery and it doesn't even hold all of your music. You can't go on a jog with it like a Shuffle. The iPhone is a weird niche device for the bleeding edge early-adopters.
- dominasian, on 10/12/2007, -15/+16i actually doubt they will. See they do it with the ipod because people are willing to pay 300 bucks per year to have the latest headphones ( and *sighs* a great interface). With the iphone its a whole new 500 to 600 dollar phone ( that with the contract but without...). I doubt that they will sell even 5 mil in 2008, its a good phone but its too expensive for most people* cough cough Cingular too cough*
- yesno, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1I don't believe Apple will sell 10 million units too but iPhone will have many switchers from cheap handsets. The argument states: "another problem is that only 80 million smart phones were sold in 2006, so Apple would have to carve out a 12.5 percent piece of that market to reach 10 million." I and many people would like a better phone but the just don't find smart phones that cool, and iPhone is at least twice as better (excluding it's price) than any smart phone, I will probably buy iPhone in a year after it's release!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Salgat, on 10/12/2007, -3/+4Its called "What to do with your limited income" you idiot.
- ChrisGrrr, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1My cell phone is 5 years old, and falling apart - I'd splurge on an iPhone - but I'll NEVER sign up with Cingular (or whatever they're calling themselves this week). As soon as I can get a legal, unlocked iPhone, I'm there. Maybe if Apple execs. see this kind of comment often enough they'll realize what a deadly mistake they've made...
- pmace, on 10/12/2007, -4/+5Drop the price low enough and they won't be able to keep them in stock. At $600 a pop with a 2-year contract with Cingular, I don't see this being a 10m unit seller.
- lucifuge, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1armour: "Well lets look at it this way unless Apple gets FIPS 140-2 SECURITY CERTIFICATION"
What are you talking about? It's a PHONE. It's not getting FIPS 140-2. That's for crypto modules with tamper-proof hardware, not for entire phones. Does Blackberry have it? Yes...well.....I guess so. They say they do, but if one reads the actual certification its obvious how ridiculous it actually is. It was just another check box item for them to get. Apple can easily do the same should they need to. - Squidly, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1The idea that the market won't support 10MM units sold is flawed.
Apple will *grow* the market with this product.
Analysts were saying the same sorts of things about the iPod when it was first released. - gharding, on 10/12/2007, -4/+5I certainly could. I just don't think the iPhone is worth it.
- inactive, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1This "smartphone" term needs to go away. It seems to be used as an excuse for the unforgivably bad functionality of most phones, as if you should have to buy a giant phone with a keyboard to simply have your information with you. There are plenty of phones that have more memory than most Palm PDAs of the last decade, and yet they can't even sync with Outlook. Look at Motorola's pathetic offerings: They don't even have ADDRESSES for the contacts. No task list. No memos. No calendar or phonebook sync that works at all.
Do these vendors pretend to think that we don't want our info with us? 99 percent of the time you just need to REFER to info you've already entered, rather than entering new info. So why the ***** isn't it on our Razrs? - HappyScrappy, on 10/12/2007, -3/+4I agree with the article.
Steve Jobs said a 1 Billion handset market, but the vast majority is for low-end handsets.
They basically have to sell nearly as many as RIM sells Blackberries, and without any ability to get mail off your work Exchange server or any sign of remote deactivate.
And at a very high price.
Oh, and there's the problem that many of the people who even do want to buy one are under contract and aren't eligible to get a new subsidized phone until next year or worse.
Apple is being very hopeful. - mobilehavoc, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1People are posting valid reasons why they'll have trouble selling 10 million iPhones but you all forget the # 1 reason...
COMPETITION. Unlike the iPod where there was largely none or nothing good...contradictory to what Steve Jobs believes there are strong and established competitors in the mobile market that people have some brand loyalty too...
i.e. Blackberry people love Blackberry devices and usually buy the next one up,etc. Same goes with Treo users, they tend to only buy the next, great Treo. I think it applies even to Windows Mobile, Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, etc.
Go to Howardforums.com and browse the forums, the loyalty some people have with their fave mobile manufacturer can put the biggest Apple zealot to shame. - cthellis, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0The "Apple is too expensive LOLZ!" point of view is old and tired.
Notice the retail price of MP3 players...? iPods ARE among the most price competitive! (At least of any of the quality players. Certainly they're the ones who've driven the price points down.) While being both the leadership in sales, mindshare, and community desire.
Their computers, compared to similarly-specced ones from the PC world, are very competitive as well--you just don't have all the options, so chances are you can find EXACTLY what you want better. But if your desires line up reasonably well to Apple's offerings... you certainly won't be disappointed. (Certainly they also launch with more software value and the less perceived maintenance costs in the future...) The iPods fare better on this because the price points and capabilities of MP3 players are nowhere near the diversity of computers, so iPods can more easily cover the gamut.
The iPhone...? It's just launching, and with only two models, but it's not like it's so very much out of line for what it gives you. Looked at the ~400 plan price for them Treos (with, like, 128MB of internal storage and no built-in WiFi) lately? (Though admittedly, additional rebates fluctuate in and out. We don't know how that might measure out on the iPhone yet.)
You can certainly question that there will be enough customers willing to buy the device at that price point, or that they would find compelling reason to replace their existing smartphones and media players by going that route, but you don't have much purchase in their being "way too expensive!" compared to what they're delivering. It's more a question of if the iPhones features and design will be compelling enough to overcome the price tag. - aserer511, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1dugg down for understatement
- ilgaz, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1Yesterday sitting in a Cafe in Istanbul, 4 of 4 guys which 2 uses very expensive Nokia phone, 1 Symbian smartphone, 1 Asus WinCE smartphone says: We will buy when iPhone ships.
I am not a "fan" of that phone claiming to be smartphone without 3rd party software. I am just telling the situation.
Remember Slashdot called iPod lame? - cthellis, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0"In the scheme of things, a $500 phone is really nothing considering that cost is spread over two years.
"
...excepting that phone costs are NOT spread over two years. (Or are you just talking about people buying it on their credit cards and paying it off slowly?)
Though you bring up an interesting point. What could they expect if they also worked out a way to pay off the phone during the "hardware lifespan" of the agreed-upon plan? (Say, the 20 months it usually takes before you can qualify for a new rebate on extending your contract.) Apple certainly likes to think outside the box, and it would be interesting if their partnership also brought this possibility into play, especially since they'll also be wanting to sell it through their own retail stores.
I mean, how many people who might balk at a good $500-600 up front would change their mind if that turned into only $25-30 extra per month? (Maybe a bit more upfront to help offset costs, but it's not like Apple doesn't have enough on hand to "deal with it" while they really push the hardware to the fore. And it's not like the cell phone companies will balk at it with the process of bringing many new customers in at probably ~$80/month for their plans, and likely be sticking around for the forseeable future.)
Certainly has prospects. - johnwc723, on 10/12/2007, -7/+7Maybe for once Apple's arrogance in a completely new market won't pay off...
- stalefries, on 10/12/2007, -2/+2If you're going to be spreading your dumb blog around, at least try to be sensible and only link to it when it's relevant.
And while you're at it, get a top-level domain, it won't be as easy for us to figure out that you're just spamming your dumb blog. - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1I own an Apple, I like my iMac and am probably going to stick with Apple until something better comes along. Let's just get that out of the way.
But realistically, expecting to sell 10 million iPhones it setting the bar a little high. I don't know if even Apple expected to sell this many of their iPhones in the given time period.
I don't know who is behind the claim, but it seems a little unrealistic. I think Apple has shown more competence than this. Apples aim seems to be to compete with high level phone owners, like Blackberry and Windows based phones, which do not sell in great numbers, because the consumers who need all of the options offered are limited in number.
Still, it shows that Apple is making waves. I wouldn't be surprised if the iPhone that is shipped is a lot more impressive than the one teased. Steve Jobs is many things, but he's not stupid. - armour, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1I would have to say they are looking larger then a million the Razor sold 750000 a quarter so I Think they will have good sales but I don't think they will met there target. I find it's an interesting phone with some great features but it's to high of a cost to make the numbers they are hoping for.
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