What's Going On With Russia's New Retaliation To US Sanctions
Yesterday, Vladimir Putin announced that he is ordering the United States to reduce its diplomatic and technical staff in Russia by almost two-thirds, Putin is also seizing two properties used by US diplomats in Russia. If you're not sure whether that's a big deal — and whether you should be worried about the future of US-Russia relations — read on.
Why Is Putin Doing This?
The forced staff reduction is a response to Congress's bipartisan passage last week of new sanctions against Russia, which the White House says President Trump will sign. It's also a delayed response to the Obama administration's December expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats (and confiscation of two of their diplomatic compounds) — which was itself a response to Russia's interference in the 2016 presidential election. Putin had been waiting to respond to the December expulsion in the hopes that the Trump administration would reverse Obama's decision.
"I think this retaliation is long, long overdue," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday about the Kremlin's action Friday demanding a cut in the number of American diplomats in Russia and seizing two U.S. facilities.
When the U.S. Senate on Thursday "voted so overwhelmingly on a completely weird and unacceptable piece of legislation, it was the last drop," he said.
[ABC News]
How Many People Are Getting Kicked Out?
Putin ordered the US to cap the number of American diplomats and technical employees in Russia at 455, the same as the number of Russian diplomats and technical employees in the US. Putin said that the US would have to reduce its staff by 755 in order to comply with the order, but the exact number of people employed by the US Embassy in Russia is unclear. It's unknown how many US citizens will be forced to leave Russia, but it's fairly certain that Russian nationals who currently work at the US embassy and consulates will be the first to lose their jobs.
The Moscow embassy and three consulates in other cities have 1,279 staff, including 301 U.S. direct-hire positions and 934 locally-employed posts from 35 U.S. government agencies, according to a 2013 State Department report. The Russian move would lower the total staff to 455 — the same number Russia has in the U.S. Only diplomats will be forced to leave the country, while Russian nationals affected by the cuts will lose their jobs.
How Unusual Is This?
It's normal for the US and Russia to kick out each other's diplomats as punishment for various disagreements, but the size of this staff reduction is unprecedented in modern times.
The United States and Russia have expelled dozens of each other's diplomats before — but Sunday's statement, made by Putin in an interview with the Rossiya-1 television channel, indicated the single largest forced reduction in embassy staff, comparable only to the closing of the American diplomatic presence in the months following the Communist revolution in 1917.
Although the Soviet Union never forced the US to downsize by as many as 755 people during the Cold War, it did engage in "tit-for-tat expulsions."
In August 1986, the United States arrested Gennadi F. Zakharov, a physicist who was a Soviet employee of the United Nations, on espionage charges. A week later, Nicholas S. Daniloff, a correspondent for U.S. News & World Report, was arrested in Moscow on espionage charges.
That started an intense round of expulsions, with the Russians ordering the American diplomatic missions down to 251 people, the same number they had in the United States at that time.
What Immediate Effects Will This Have?
Russian citizens will likely bear the brunt of Putin's forced staff reduction. As previously mentioned, most of the people laid off due to Putin's order are likely to be Russian citizens.
The Russian expulsion of 755 American embassy and consular staff seems likely result in the slashing of support staff jobs: drivers, security guards, administrative personnel—jobs that are mostly held by Russians. That is, many of the staff reductions won't result in expulsions for Americans, but the loss of a paycheck for hundreds of Russian citizens. Much like its retaliation for the 2012 Magnitsky Act, when Moscow banned American adoptions of Russian children, this round again punishes Russians.
And it doesn't do too many favors for the Russian state, given that some of those Russians who will be let go from their American embassy jobs were eyes for Russian intelligence.
And Russians who wish to travel to the US will see slowdowns in visa processing as a result of the staff reduction.
At the very least, the order from the Kremlin was expected to set back some functions at the embassy, like processing visas, which both sides had already slowed…
Vladimir Kruglov, a retiree who said he enjoyed touring national parks in the United States, said that until recently the visa process had taken a maximum of 20 days, but that there were now all kinds of extra procedures, including a month's wait for an interview.
What Happens Next?
Putin and his underlings have issued vague threats of escalating their retaliation if the US continues to punish Russia for its election interference (which Russia denies).
Russia does have additional options to pressure American interests, Mr. Putin warned, without going into details. "I hope it will not come to this," he said.
As to how the Kremlin might respond, [Ryabkov] said, "We have a very rich toolbox at our disposal. It would be ridiculous on my part to start speculating on what may or may not happen."
[ABC News]
What's Up With All The Vacation Homes?
In addition to forcing the US Embassy to reduce its staff, Putin also employed one of the US and Russia's favorite tactics: confiscating the other side's vacation home:
The Russian government is also seizing two diplomatic properties — a dacha, or country house, in a leafy neighborhood in Moscow and a warehouse — following the decision by the Obama administration in December to take possession of two Russian mansions in the United States.
The New York Times describes the seized dacha as "a bucolic enclave used for barbecues," which sounds very nice. As for the diplomatic mansions seized by the US in December, Putin had been hoping for their return, but no luck.
Mr. Putin had made no secret of the fact that he hoped Mr. Trump would return the estates as a friendly gesture when the two met in Hamburg, but that did not happen. The American government has said the Russian properties it closed were not just recreational areas, but used for intelligence gathering.
It looks like this year's summer vacation is going to be a bummer for American and Russian diplomats alike.