What Doug Jones' Victory Means
On Tuesday, Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore in the special Alabama Senate race — the first time an Alabama Democrat has won a Senate seat in the state in over 20 years. The stunning result is undeniably important and historic, but what does the result really mean for America now, and in the future?
Candidates Matter… But Only By A Bit
Before going into full-on speculative analysis mode, one of the most important conclusions of the election is simply that candidates matter, as Donald Trump himself tweeted Tuesday Morning. Roy Moore was undeniably a non-traditional candidate — someone who was accused by multiple people of sexual misconduct and who was unabashedly racist and homophobic. Had he won, it would have been a sign that Republicans were willing to elect anyone from the party — a grim outlook for 2018. Luckily, that wasn't the case.
That being said, America elected Donald Trump, who also faced allegations of sexual misconduct, meaning the election can't be completely chalked up to Moore's November surprise.
Ezra Klein writes in Vox that the fact that Alabama almost elected Moore is still something to reckon with:
Moore would have prevailed by double digits absent the revelations about his sexual past. But the fact remains that even with all we learned of him, he is only projected to lose by about 1.6 points. Even though we are not the country that elected Roy Moore tonight, we are the country that almost elected him, and that is still worth reckoning with.
[Vox]
This Isn't A Sign Of A New Blue South
Douglas Williams and Bryan Conlon warn on The South Lawn blog that Doug Jones' election shouldn't be interpreted as a new era of southern politics:
Relying on the far right to produce candidates that provoke something akin to an immune response against them in the Black parts of the electorate ain't a sustainable strategy… Without a concerted effort to build (or rebuild) a grassroots alternative to the un-Reconstructed horror of Roy Moore and the rest of the right in Alabama, this victory, a hybrid borne from the marriage of a uniquely vile candidate and the response to the national trend set by a staggeringly unpopular President, will be as sterile as a mule.
Trump's Endorsement May Have Lost Its Teeth
As Politico notes, President Trump endorsed the losing candidate in both stages of the special Alabama Senate election:
Jones' win meant that Trump, who had endorsed Luther Strange in the Republican primary before backing Moore in the general election, threw his weight behind the losing candidate not once, but twice, in the Alabama race… Tuesday's election results suggested that, whatever the president's power, he is incapable of boosting other anti-establishment candidates to office.
[Politico]
Elaina Johnson suggests that if Trump's endorsement couldn't push Moore over the edge in deep-red Alabama, his ability to get non-establishment candidates elected elsewhere in 2018 is limited.
Democrats Are More Likely To Take The Senate In 2018
The conservative Weekly Standard explains how Tuesday's victory gives Democrats a better chance at taking the majority in the Senate in 2018:
Had Moore won, Democrats would have had a very difficult path to a majority… They would have had to hold every one of their seats… win an open contest in Arizona, unseat Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada and win one other state — presumably Tennessee or Texas… Jones' win in Alabama changes this calculus. Democrats no longer have to look to Tennessee or Texas… for their 51st vote in the Senate. They simply need to defend all of their seats while winning Nevada… and Arizona[.]
Black Voters And Soccer Moms Will Take Center Stage In 2018
As Washington Post graphics that have circulated widely on Twitter show, Black voters were crucial to Jones' victory.
While making up only a quarter of the state, 29% of votes cast were by black people, and 96% of them were for Jones. As Gabriel Debenedetti and Alex Isenstadt write in Politico, the massive turnout shows that the Democratic party can effectively mobilize black voters:
The result swept aside weeks of hand-wringing here and pointed to an optimistic future for a party that wasn't sure it would be able to bring black voters to the polls in sufficient numbers without Barack Obama atop the ticket. But with strong minority support energized by both hatred of Donald Trump and Roy Moore, Jones provided Democrats with a model for 2018, even in the deep South.
Debenedetti and Alex Isenstadt also note another demographic trend that will play a big role in 2018: the disappearance of the soccer mom.
The other primary reason for Jones' win was strong antipathy toward Moore among white, suburban, college-educated conservatives. Many of them chose to sit out the election or follow the lead of Sen. Richard Shelby and write in an option other than Moore. That follows the pattern of Republican under-performance in the suburbs during earlier races in 2017, and it creates a clear opportunity for Democrats in 2018 — especially given their enormous turnouts.
[Politico]
This Might Put The Republican Tax Bill In Danger
If Jones is sworn in before the passage of the Republican tax bill, its passage could be put in real danger, as Vox notes:
If Jones were to be sworn in before the tax bill is passed, suddenly Republicans would have only one vote to spare. With Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) seeming implacable… they could not survive any more desertions.
But one GOP vote has been looking increasingly tenuous: Susan Collins of Maine… She gave her support to the tax bill… in part on the promise that Congress would also pass bills designed to stabilize the health care law.
In the past few days, House Speaker Paul Ryan has thrown cold water on those bills and the White House started to back away from its commitment.
[Vox]
