This Graph Showing Fertility Rates In Flint Before And After The Water Crisis Is Legitimately Shocking
The water crisis in Flint, Michigan began in 2014 when the city switched its source of drinking water and failed to properly treat it to prevent lead contamination. The lead levels in the city's tap water are now reportedly back to normal, but the effects of the poisoning are still being felt.
This graph, first noticed by Washington Post data reporter Christopher Ingraham, is from a working paper by two economists who were trying to figure out the effects of the lead contamination on Flint's fertility rate. The red line represents the fertility rate in Flint between 2008 and 2015 (averaged with the fertility rate of the previous six months and the following six months, in order to smooth out seasonal changes). The blue line represents the average fertility rate in other Michigan cities during that time. The vertical line is the last date for which the average fertility rate doesn't include any women who may have consumed contaminated water during their pregnancy.
Overall, the authors estimate that the lead poisoning resulted in enough fetal deaths and miscarriages to decrease Flint's fertility rate by 12 percent.
We use the universe of live births and fetal deaths in Michigan from 2008 to 2015 to
estimate the effect of a change in the water supply in Flint on fertility and health. Our results
suggest that women in Flint following the water change had a general fertility rate (GFR) of
approximately 7.5 live births per 1,000 women aged 15-49 fewer than control women of the same
age group, or a 12.0 percent decrease. Because the higher lead content of the new water supply
was unknown at the time, this decrease in GFR is likely a reflection of an increase in fetal deaths
and miscarriages and not a behavior change in sexual behavior related to conception like
contraceptive use.